上海市二手房指数技术分析方法研究

发布时间：2018-05-14 04:31

本文选题：上海市二手房指数 + 艾略特波浪理论　；参考：《上海交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文较为扼要综述了我国房地产行业发展和宏观调控政策的概况,近20年来尤其是自2003年以来,这个行业的投资在我国国内生产总值(GDP)中所占的比重逐年增加,其运行风险对社会经济发展的影响日益增大。因此,研究房地产市场的科学评估方法,将具有重要的学术和实用意义。本文采用技术分析方法,较为深入地分析考察了上海市二手房指数随时间变化的规律性,并在此基础上对它的后续走势进行了尝试性的预测。主要研究内容及其结果包括:(1)应用艾略特波浪理论对上海市二手房指数随时间的变化特征进行的分析,表明该指数基本符合5子浪上升结构,且目前处于上升的第5浪之中;在2014年8月~2015年12月期间,或当上海市二手房指数进入3061~3423区间,宜重点关注其第5浪上升乃至上海市十余年的房产牛市是否会明确出现阶段性见顶的信号。(2)应用重标极差分析法即R/S分析法考察了上海市二手房指数随时间的变化,表明该指数目前仍处于Hurst数接近于1的强记忆持续性上升过程之中,其自2014年7月开始出现较为明显的回落,可能是为了降低第5浪初期较大的上升速率,目前尚不能确定该浪上升趋势发生了转折。(3)为对上海市二手房市场建立实用简便的风险评估方法,构建了预警指标EWI和报警指标WI。与截止于2013年12月的上海市二手房指数曲线比较表明,该指数曲线处于EWI线之上,运行状态是安全的;截止于2014年9月,该指数曲线已下穿EWI线而处于预警状态,但与报警指标EW线尚高出一段距离,目前暂不需要采取具体的避险操作。(4)将2001年11月以来的上海市二手房指数变化与国家宏观调控政策演变进行了比较,表明该指数对抑制性政策减缓上涨速率的反应相对迟钝,而对保护性政策促进回升的反应则比较敏感。目前该指数处于第5浪上升的中后期且离选择后续运行方向的时点日益接近,为避免市场向下突破而有害于社会稳定和经济结构转型发展,建议在国家相关政策的指导下,上海市适时对现行部分抑制性的调控政策(主要包括房贷和限购等)进行适当的松绑,将是有益的。
[Abstract]:This paper gives a brief overview of the development of the real estate industry and the macro-control policies in China. In the past 20 years, especially since 2003, the proportion of the investment in the real estate industry in China's GDP has increased year by year. The influence of its running risk on social and economic development is increasing day by day. Therefore, it will be of great academic and practical significance to study the scientific evaluation method of real estate market. Based on the technical analysis method, the regularity of the change of second-hand housing index with time in Shanghai is analyzed, and the trend of second-hand housing index in Shanghai is forecasted. The main research contents and results include: (1) the Elliott wave theory is applied to analyze the change characteristics of Shanghai second-hand housing index with time, which shows that the index basically accords with the structure of the fifth sub-wave rising, and is in the fifth rising wave at present. Between August 2014 and December 2015, or when the Shanghai second-hand housing index reaches the range of 3061m3423, It is appropriate to focus on whether the fifth wave rising and even whether the housing bull market in Shanghai for more than a decade will clearly show a signal of periodic peak.) the second hand housing index in Shanghai has been examined by using the method of heavy standard range difference analysis, or the RPS analysis method, with the change of the second-hand housing index in Shanghai over time. This indicates that the index is still in the process of increasing the Hurst number, which is close to 1, and it has been falling back obviously since July 2014, which may be in order to reduce the large rising rate in the early stage of the fifth wave. In order to establish a practical and convenient risk assessment method for the second-hand housing market in Shanghai, an early warning index (EWI) and an alarm index (Wi) have been constructed. A comparison with the Shanghai second-hand housing index curve as of December 2013 shows that the index curve is above the EWI line and is safe to operate. As of September 2014, the index curve had been crossed through the EWI line and was in a warning state. However, the EW line is still far higher than the alarm index. At present, there is no need to take specific risk-averse operation. (4) the change of second-hand housing index in Shanghai since November 2001 is compared with the evolution of the state macro-control policy. The results show that the index is relatively slow to slow down the rise rate of the policy, but sensitive to the protective policy to promote the recovery. At present, the index is in the middle and late stage of the fifth wave rise and is getting closer and closer to the time of choosing the direction of subsequent operation. In order to avoid a market breakthrough that is harmful to social stability and the development of economic structure transformation, it is suggested that under the guidance of relevant national policies, It would be beneficial for Shanghai to release some of the existing restrictive policies (mainly including mortgage loans and limited purchases) in due time.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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