基于系统动力学的工程项目群风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-05-17 19:35

本文选题：项目群 + 风险管理　；参考：《辽宁工程技术大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：项目群风险管理是指业主在建设工程的过程中,用系统的、动态的方法、最小的成本对未来可能遇到的风险进行识别、分析、评价,采取措施进行应对,并同时进行监控的过程。文章从项目群风险的特点入手,对项目群风险管理的过程进行了研究,发现了我国现阶段对项目群风险管理还没有形成统一的认识体系,特别是在风险评价方面还有缺失。文章采用文献综述法,模糊综合评判法,层次分析法及系统动力学的方法,对项目群风险的管理过程进行了较为科学的研究,最后以盘锦市市民服务中心工程项目群为背景进行模拟,得出需要重点防控的风险因素,以及选择风险管理的策略时,不仅要注意降低风险水平,同时要兼顾风险管控成本,并以此为依据提出合理的应对措施。同时发现研究还存在一些问题,这些问题为本课题继续深入研究指明了方向。
[Abstract]:Project group risk management means that the owner identifies, analyzes, evaluates and takes measures to deal with the possible risks in the future with systematic and dynamic methods and minimum cost. And at the same time the process of monitoring. Starting with the characteristics of project group risk, this paper studies the process of project group risk management, and finds out that there is no unified understanding system of project group risk management in our country at present, especially in the aspect of risk evaluation. In this paper, the methods of literature review, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, analytic hierarchy process and system dynamics are used to study the risk management process of project group scientifically. Finally, with Panjin City Citizen Service Center project group as the background of simulation, the need for key prevention and control of risk factors, as well as the choice of risk management strategy, we should not only pay attention to reduce the level of risk, but also take into account the cost of risk control. On the basis of this, reasonable countermeasures are put forward. At the same time, we find that there are still some problems in the research, which point out the direction of further research.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁工程技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F282;TU71;N941.3

【参考文献】