房价上涨预期对逆向选择现象的抑制效应:来自二手房交易实验的证据

发布时间：2018-05-17 20:26

本文选题：二手房市场 + 房价上涨预期　；参考：《清华大学学报(自然科学版)》2015年01期

【摘要】：该文研究房价上涨预期对二手房市场逆向选择现象的影响。首先,从理论角度提出房价上涨预期指标与逆向选择程度的测算公式。之后,基于现实二手房市场交易特点设计和实施经济学实验,通过实验模拟不同房价上涨预期条件下的二手房交易过程,并收集数据。最后,基于实验数据对房价上涨预期指标与市场逆向选择程度进行测算,并检验房价上涨预期对市场逆向选择的影响。研究表明:严重的信息不对称是二手房市场产生逆向选择现象的主要诱因;当前市场上交易人的房价上涨预期在一定程度上暂时抑制了逆向选择现象的发生。预防和解决二手房市场逆向选择现象的根本途径是降低信息不对称程度。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the effect of house price increase expectation on the adverse selection in the second-hand housing market. First of all, the paper puts forward the formula of the expected index of house price rise and the degree of adverse selection. Then, based on the characteristics of the real second-hand housing market, the paper designs and implements the economic experiment, simulates the transaction process of the second-hand house under different expected conditions of house price increase through the experiment, and collects the data. Finally, based on the experimental data, the paper calculates the expected index of house price rise and the degree of adverse selection, and tests the influence of the expectation of house price increase on the adverse selection of market. The research shows that the serious information asymmetry is the main inducement of adverse selection in the second-hand housing market, and the expectation of the price rise of the traders in the current market has temporarily restrained the occurrence of the reverse selection phenomenon to a certain extent. The fundamental way to prevent and solve the adverse selection in the secondary housing market is to reduce the degree of information asymmetry.
【作者单位】：清华大学恒隆房地产研究中心;清华大学城镇化与产业发展研究中心;北京林业大学经济管理学院物业管理系;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71373143)
【分类号】：F299.23;F224

【参考文献】