中国转型期失业影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-05-19 05:10

本文选题：转型期 + 失业影响因素　；参考：《中共陕西省委党校》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：失业问题既是经济发展的焦点亦是经济学者们研究的热点，我国在这方面的研究，大多局限于对奥肯定律的验证以及某个因素对失业率影响的分析，实证分析所用到的数据大都来自于《中国统计年鉴》公布的城镇登记失业率。本文将研究时间定位于1992年以来的转型期，由于经济社会的转型及特殊性对失业的影响，使研究失业问题变得更为复杂。因此，本文以转型期失业影响因素的研究为核心，共分为七部分进行阐述，，具体结构安排如下：第一部分为引言。主要介绍本文的选题背景、研究的意义、思路和方法。第二部分为失业问题及影响因素理论研究。主要阐释失业的基本概念和类型、失业影响因素的相关理论。具体包括对西方失业理论、马克思经典作家失业理论和国内外关于失业影响因素研究的论述和比较分析，了解目前专家学者对于相关问题研究的现状。第三部分为转型期中国失业问题的现状及特点分析。首先，描述中国失业问题的现状，归纳转型期中国失业问题的特点；然后，结合前人研究的成果，通过计算得出包含城乡隐性失业在内的真实总失业率，以此说明我国目前失业的严重程度。第四部分为转型期奥肯定律在中国适用性的验证。首先，本文用《中国统计年鉴》公布的城镇登记失业率与经济增长率进行相关性的直观描述，结果显示，由于中国经济不符合奥肯定律成立的四个前提条件，确实存在“高失业高经济增长”的悖论。然后，为了剔除数据失信带来的误差，本文运用第三部分计算得到的真实总失业率数据进行实证分析，但是回归结果的拟合程度不高，经济增长率与失业率变动的相关性很小。最后，考虑到我国经济的阶段性特征，引入一个虚拟时间变量进行实证分析，结果仍旧不显著。第五部分为转型期中国失业影响因素的实证分析。在前面分析的基础上，本文将经济结构调整、固定资产投资、经常项目顺差、居民消费、通货膨胀以及最低工资等6个因素纳入奥肯定律标准化模型中进行实证研究。结果表明，虽然整体上方程拟合程度有所改善，而且解释变量与失业率变动之间存在着长期的均衡关系，但是，GDPI和GDPc没有通过T检验，与此同时，六个变量前面的系数普遍偏小，说明短期内单个变量对失业率变动的影响效果不显著。进一步表明中国转型期失业问题表现出的异质性是这些因素综合作用的结果。第六部分是政策建议。针对转型期各解释变量对失业率变动的影响效应，本文认为应该在以下几个方面做出努力：第一，深化经济体制改革；第二，大力促进第三产业发展；第三，有针对性地进行理性投资；第四，优化贸易结构，提高出口商品附加值；第五，深化收入分配制度改革，提高低收入人群的收入水平。第七部分为全文总结。
[Abstract]:The unemployment problem is not only the focus of economic development but also the focus of economists' research. In China, most of the studies in this area are limited to the verification of Okun's law and the analysis of the influence of a certain factor on the unemployment rate. Most of the data used in the empirical analysis come from the urban registered unemployment rate published in the Statistical Yearbook of China. In this paper, the research time is fixed in the transition period since 1992. Because of the transition of economy and society and the influence of particularity on unemployment, the study of unemployment becomes more complicated. Therefore, this paper focuses on the study of the influence factors of unemployment in the transition period, and it is divided into seven parts. The specific structure is as follows: The first part is the introduction. This paper mainly introduces the background of the topic, the significance of the study, ideas and methods. The second part is the theoretical study of unemployment and its influencing factors. It mainly explains the basic concepts and types of unemployment, and the relevant theories of the influencing factors of unemployment. It includes the theory of unemployment in the West, the theory of unemployment of Marxist classical writers and the comparative analysis of the research on the influencing factors of unemployment at home and abroad, so as to understand the present situation of the research on the relevant problems by experts and scholars. The third part is the analysis of the current situation and characteristics of unemployment in China during the transition period. Firstly, it describes the present situation of China's unemployment problem, summarizes the characteristics of China's unemployment problem during the transition period, and then, combining the results of previous studies, obtains the real total unemployment rate, which includes urban and rural hidden unemployment. This shows the severity of unemployment in our country at present. The fourth part is the verification of the applicability of Okun's law in China during the transition period. First of all, this paper describes the correlation between the urban registered unemployment rate and the economic growth rate, which is published in the Statistical Yearbook of China. The results show that the Chinese economy does not conform to the four preconditions of Okun's Law. There is indeed a paradox of high unemployment and high economic growth. Then, in order to eliminate the error caused by data dishonesty, this paper uses the real total unemployment rate data calculated in the third part to carry on empirical analysis, but the fitting degree of regression result is not high, and the correlation between economic growth rate and unemployment rate change is very small. Finally, considering the stage characteristics of China's economy, a virtual time variable is introduced for empirical analysis, and the results are still not significant. The fifth part is the empirical analysis of the influencing factors of unemployment in China during the transition period. On the basis of the previous analysis, this paper makes an empirical study on the economic structure adjustment, fixed asset investment, current account surplus, resident consumption, inflation and minimum wage in the Orken's Law Standardization Model. The results show that, although the degree of equation fitting has improved, and there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the explanatory variables and the change of unemployment rate, GDPI and GDPc have not passed the T test, at the same time, The coefficients in front of the six variables are generally small, which indicates that the effect of single variable on the change of unemployment rate in the short term is not significant. It further shows that the heterogeneity of unemployment in China during the transition period is the result of the combined effect of these factors. The sixth part is the policy suggestion. In view of the effect of various explanatory variables on the change of unemployment rate in the transitional period, this paper argues that efforts should be made in the following aspects: first, deepening the reform of the economic system; second, vigorously promoting the development of the tertiary industry; third, Fourth, optimize the trade structure and increase the added value of export commodities; fifthly, deepen the reform of income distribution system and raise the income level of low-income people. The seventh part is a summary of the full text.
【学位授予单位】：中共陕西省委党校
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F249.21

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