中国能源消耗与经济增长“脱钩”研究

发布时间：2018-05-24 22:39

本文选题：经济发展 + 环境压力　；参考：《南京财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：自从世界进入到工业社会以来,能源就与我们的生活息息相关密不可分,贯穿整个社会的方方面面,而经济的增长更是必定要依赖能源这一重要资源。由于技术的限制,当前使用的能源依然是化石燃料为主,非化石燃料仅仅只占有很小的一部分能源供给。化石燃料的使用给世界环境带来了巨大的压力：环境污染、温室气体、全球变暖等等。同时由于化石燃料短期内的不可再生性,不能支撑经济社会的无限发展,因此人们越来越关注能源利用的高效率,使能源利用成为可持续发展的一部分,研究经济增长与能源消耗的关系是其中很重要的一部分。“脱钩”概念始一提出就得到了理论界极大的注意。“脱钩”由西方学者提出,表示的是经济增长不再高度依赖能源消耗的增加的一种状态。作为探讨两个变量关系的研究方法,为经济发展与环境压力的关系的处理提供了一种重要的研究方法。中国进入工业社会时间较晚,目前仍基本上处于粗放型经济增长社会,即经济增长比较依赖于第二产业的发展,也就是说我国的经济增长对能源资源的消耗依赖性较大。而为了可持续发展的战略目标,研究我国经济增长与能源消耗的脱钩关系以及发展方向具有现实意义。本文通过分析发现中国的经济增长进程中根据增长速度的变化可以分为四个阶段,对这四个时期中经济增长与能源消费关系进行灰色关联度分析得出了在各个阶段时二者的关系动态变化特征以及三次产业产值增长与能源消费之间的动态关系变化。进一步使用三元需求模型和三元产出模型分别把能源价格和劳动力总量引入经济发展与能源消费之间的关系,观察其对二者关系的影响。本文的行文结构如下：第一章为绪论综述,主要介绍了国内外关于脱钩的理论研究现状。第二章介绍中国经济发展的阶段划分以及分产业的经济发展情况。第三章介绍我国能源消费的时间序列变量,并对具体的能源如煤炭、石油、天然气以及电力的使用情况进行初步分析。第四章使用三元需求模型和三元产出模型对多变量影响下的经济增长与能源消费关系进行分析。第五章利用灰色关联度分析方法对分阶段的经济增长与能源消费之间的灰色关联度进行分析,观察二者的关系动态变化。并进一步的分析经济因素中具体指标对能源消费的推动作用。第六章是根据上文分析结果对我国能源与经济的发展提出相应的理论建议。
[Abstract]:Since the world entered into the industrial society, energy is closely related to our life and runs through all aspects of the society, and economic growth must rely on energy as an important resource. Due to the limitation of technology, the current use of energy is still mainly fossil fuels, non-fossil fuels only account for a very small portion of the energy supply. The use of fossil fuels has put great pressure on the world environment: environmental pollution, greenhouse gases, global warming and so on. At the same time, because fossil fuels are not renewable in the short term and cannot support the unlimited development of economy and society, people pay more and more attention to the high efficiency of energy utilization, which makes energy utilization become a part of sustainable development. Research on the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption is an important part of it. As soon as the concept of "decoupling" was put forward, great attention was paid to it. Decoupling, proposed by Western scholars, represents a state in which economic growth is no longer highly dependent on an increase in energy consumption. As a research method to study the relationship between two variables, it provides an important research method for dealing with the relationship between economic development and environmental pressure. China is still in the extensive economic growth society, that is, economic growth depends on the development of the secondary industry, that is to say, the economic growth of our country is more dependent on the consumption of energy and resources. In order to achieve the strategic goal of sustainable development, it is of practical significance to study the decoupling relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in China. This paper finds that the process of China's economic growth can be divided into four stages according to the change of growth rate. The relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in these four periods is analyzed by grey relational degree. The dynamic characteristics of the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in each stage and the dynamic relationship between the growth of output value of three industries and energy consumption are obtained. Furthermore, the ternary demand model and the ternary output model are used to introduce the energy price and total labor force into the relationship between economic development and energy consumption, and to observe their influence on the relationship between them. The structure of this paper is as follows: the first chapter is an introduction, mainly introduces the current situation of theoretical research on decoupling at home and abroad. The second chapter introduces the stage division of China's economic development and the economic development by industry. The third chapter introduces the time series variables of energy consumption in China, and makes a preliminary analysis on the use of specific energy sources such as coal, oil, natural gas and electricity. The fourth chapter analyzes the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption under the influence of multivariable by using ternary demand model and ternary output model. In the fifth chapter, the grey correlation degree between economic growth and energy consumption is analyzed by using the method of grey correlation analysis, and the dynamic changes of the relationship between the two are observed. And further analysis of economic factors in the specific indicators of energy consumption. The sixth chapter is based on the results of the above analysis of energy and economic development in China to put forward the corresponding theoretical recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.1;F206

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