国际工程项目政治风险及其评价研究

发布时间：2018-06-01 09:22

本文选题：国际工程 + 政治风险　；参考：《长沙理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：国际工程项目实施面临各种风险影响,政治风险是其中最大的一个影响因素之一。政治风险涉及的不确定性因素非常繁杂,给风险量度和评估工作带来了极大的困难。对国际工程项目实施中的政治风险因素进行分析和识别,寻求科学有效的方法进行政治风险评价显得尤为重要。本论文结合国际工程项目以及政治风险相关研究理论,分析国际工程项目和政治风险研究现状,通过总结国内外政治风险评估方面的经验,尝试建立了国际工程项目政治风险评价体系。首先,以国际工程项目及政治风险理论为依据,总结国际工程项目以及政治风险的类型、特点和发展趋势,提出指标因素确定思路及指标体系构建原则,确定政治风险评价涉及指标因素,建立国际工程项目政治风险评价指标体系,提出模糊综合评价法确定国际工程项目政治风险等级；接着,分析常用风险评价方法的优劣,从评价政治风险的需要出发,确定BP神经网络作为政治风险评价方法,并对BP神经网络的算法进行改进,建立国际工程项目政治风险LMBP神经网络评价模型；最后以收集国际工程项目样本数据对LMBP神经网络模型进行学习训练,通过与模糊综合评价法评价结果对比,验证模型准确性和可靠性,并以阿尔及利亚的一个国际工程项目为例,实证了国际工程项目政治风险评价体系实用性。本论文着眼于国际工程项目政治风险评价研究,找寻合适的评价方法,判别国际工程项目政治风险的大小,对国际工程承包商防范和规避政治风险以及丰富国际工程政治风险理论研究都具有一定的价值。
[Abstract]:Based on the international engineering project and political risk theory , this paper attempts to establish the international engineering project political risk evaluation system . Firstly , based on the international engineering project and political risk theory , this paper tries to establish the international engineering project political risk evaluation system . Firstly , based on the international engineering project and political risk theory , this paper attempts to establish the international engineering project political risk evaluation system .
Secondly , analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of commonly used risk evaluation methods , starting from the needs of evaluating the political risk , determining the BP neural network as a political risk evaluation method , and improving the algorithm of the BP neural network , and establishing an international engineering project political risk LMBP neural network evaluation model ;
Finally , based on the collection of sample data of international engineering projects , the LMBP neural network model is trained , the accuracy and reliability of the model are verified through comparison with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method , and the practicability of the international engineering project political risk evaluation system is verified by taking an international engineering project of Algeria as an example . This paper looks at the international engineering project political risk evaluation research , finds out the size of the political risk of the international engineering project , and has certain value for the international engineering contractors to prevent and avoid political risks and enrich the political risk theory of international engineering .
【学位授予单位】：长沙理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F282;TP183

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