包容性视角下产业结构与就业结构相关性研究

发布时间：2018-06-07 02:25

本文选题：包容性增长 + 产业结构　；参考：《重庆大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来，我国经济经过了30年的快速增长，产业结构和就业结构都有一定的改变。但是在就业方面依然存在很多问题，社会上“用工荒”和“用工难”的现象并存，十分严重。要实现胡锦涛总书记提出的“包容性增长”就必须将就业问题放在首位，以解决民生问题为发展中的关键点。因此，在包容性视角下探讨我国产业结构与就业结构的问题，，构建出一个能够促进“包容性增长”的未来发展模式就显得尤为重要。基于这种思路，本文尝试从产业结构和就业结构的相关性问题的方向进行探索。主要运用了不同的实证方法在实现“包容性增长”的视角下的标准以及对我国产业结构和就业结构的调整是否实现“包容性增长”目标做了量化的说明。本文具体要研究的问题是我国产业结构和就业结构的现状如何？我国产业结构与就业结构的协调性如何？我国产业结构和就业结构的关联性如何？最终要解决的问题是如何才能使产业结构的调整顺应“包容性增长”的趋势，对此有怎样的政策建议？首先通过对我国产业结构与就业结构的演进和现状的描述分析来对本文的研究对象有了定量的了解。从中我们看到：我国三次产业的GDP占比结构由原来的“二一三”结构转变为“二三一”结构，产业结构的演变基本符合配第·克拉克定理的发展趋势。但是第二产业的GDP占比还明显偏高，产业结构模式没有转化为“三二一”的合理产业结构模式。我国就业结构由传统的“一二三”模式向“三一二”模式转变。我国第一产业的剩余劳动力还过多，第二产业的就业吸纳不足导致我国的就业结构没有形成现代化合理的“三二一”结构。其次，通过偏离度分析和相似系数分析的方法对我国产业结构与就业结构的协调性进行了系统的研究。最终得到的结论是：总体上来说我国产业结构与就业的整体协调程度较低虽然有所改善但是好转的速度十分缓慢，离实现“包容性增长”的目标还有一定距离。我国产业结构与就业结构的转型与发达国家之间的差距明显还需要进行进一步调整。从三次产业上来说，第一产业存在大量剩余劳动力，二三产业就业吸纳不足。再次，通过格兰杰因果检验和灰色关联方法对我国产业结构与就业结构的关联性进行了剖析。得到的具体结论是：我国产业结构和就业结构互为格兰杰因果关系，但是我国产业结构对就业、我国就业结构对就业没有明显的格兰杰果关系。与我国非农就业比例关系最密切的是第二产业其次是第三产业关联最弱的是第一产业。在细分行业中与非农就业比例的关系按照由强到弱的顺序排列依次是批发零售业、建筑业、工业、金融业、交通运输仓储邮政业、住宿餐饮业、房地产业。最后，通过对全文的总结得到了一些政策建议：在第三产业发展中应注重城市化道路，在第二产业的发展中应着重新型工业化道路的实现，在第一产业的发展中应积极促进建立统一的劳动力市场。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening - up , China ' s economy has undergone 30 years of rapid growth , the industrial structure and the employment structure have changed . However , there are still many problems in employment . In order to realize inclusive growth of Hu Jintao ' s general secretary , it is necessary to put the problem of employment in the first place to solve the key points in the development . Therefore , it is especially important to discuss the problems of industrial structure and employment structure in China in an inclusive view , and to construct a future development mode which can promote inclusive growth .

Based on this thinking , this paper attempts to explore the relationship between industrial structure and employment structure . It mainly uses different empirical methods to quantify the industrial structure and employment structure of our country . What is the relationship between the industrial structure and employment structure of our country ? How to adjust the industrial structure and employment structure in our country ? How can the adjustment of industrial structure conform to the trend of " inclusive growth " ?

This paper analyzes the evolution and current situation of the industrial structure and employment structure of our country . We have seen that the GDP of the tertiary industry in our country is changed from the original " two - three " structure to " two - three - one " structure , the evolution of the industrial structure basically accords with the development trend of the rational industrial structure of the first industry . However , the employment structure of our country is changed from the traditional " one - two - three " model to " three - two - one " mode . The employment structure of our country is still too much , and the shortage of employment in the second industry leads to the lack of modern and reasonable " three - two - one " structure in the employment structure of our country .

Secondly , the coordination of industrial structure and employment structure of our country is systematically studied by means of deviation analysis and similarity coefficient analysis .

The relationship between the industrial structure and the employment structure of our country is analyzed . The concrete conclusion is that the industrial structure and the employment structure of our country have no obvious effect on the employment , but the employment structure of our country has no obvious effect on the employment .

Finally , through the summary of the whole text , some policy suggestions are obtained : in the development of tertiary industry , we should pay attention to the road of urbanization . In the development of the second industry , we should focus on the realization of the new industrialization road . In the development of the first industry , we should actively promote the establishment of the unified labor market .
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F121.3;F249.21

【参考文献】