以长沙市为例的房地产调控政策效果分析

发布时间：2018-06-12 04:23

本文选题：长沙市 + 房地产政策效果　；参考：《湖南大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：房地产市场是关系国计民生的市场，不仅与百姓生活水平息息相关，而且也体现一个国家的经济发展水平。随着经济飞速发展，我国GDP总量超过日本成为世界第二大经济体，房地产市场也获得更大的发展空间，发展速度迅猛。但在房地产市场快速发展的同时，也产生了许多问题，房价只涨不跌就是其中一个严重的问题。对此，政府实施了几轮房地产调控，但调控效果都不尽如人意。因此，研究房地产调控政策效果，，提出有效对策显得十分必要和迫切。本文采用实证研究的方法，详细梳理了2009年到2013年国家及长沙市房地产调控税收政策、货币政策和土地政策，并结合调控政策分析以长沙市为例的房地产市场现状，主要包括对长沙市商品住宅成交价格、商品住宅供应量、商品住宅成交量和土地供给面积的分析。通过向量自回归模型和脉冲响应函数的实证分析，以及向量误差修正模型和方差分解的实证分析，得出结论：税收政策对房价的脉冲响应是先正向后负向的响应，利率政策对房价的响应是正向响应，而土地购置面积政策是负向响应；税收政策的影响贡献率相对较小，货币政策对商品房成交量的影响最大，土地政策对房价影响效果相对显著。根据结论，笔者运用托马斯·史密斯模型探讨了以长沙市为例的房地产调控政策，从四个方面进行了分析：第一，房地产调控政策。存在税收政策、货币政策和土地政策三个问题；第二，房地产调控执行机构。存在长沙市政府和银行两个问题；第三，房地产调控目标群体。存在购房者和房地产商两个问题；第四，房地产调控环境。在对政策执行进行分析和总结的基础上，研究分别从这四个方面提出了对于房地产市场调控的可行性政策建议。
[Abstract]:The real estate market is a market related to the national economy and the people's livelihood, which is not only closely related to the living standards of the people, but also reflects the level of economic development of a country. With the rapid development of economy, the gross domestic product of our country surpasses Japan to become the second largest economy in the world, the real estate market also obtains the bigger development space, the development speed is swift and violent. However, with the rapid development of the real estate market, there are also many problems, among which the rise or fall of house prices is one of the serious problems. In response, the government has implemented several rounds of real estate regulation and control, but the effect is not satisfactory. Therefore, it is necessary and urgent to study the effect of real estate regulation and control policy and put forward effective countermeasures. Monetary policy and land policy, combined with the regulation and control policy analysis of the real estate market situation in Changsha, mainly including the transaction price of commercial housing, the supply of commercial housing, the volume of commercial housing and land supply area analysis. Through the empirical analysis of vector autoregressive model, impulse response function, vector error correction model and variance decomposition, it is concluded that the impulse response of tax policy to house price is first positive and negative. The response of interest rate policy to house price is positive, while that of land purchase area policy is negative, the contribution rate of tax policy is relatively small, and monetary policy has the greatest influence on the transaction volume of commercial housing. The impact of land policy on housing prices is relatively significant. According to the conclusion, the author uses Thomas Smith model to discuss the real estate regulation and control policy in Changsha City, and analyzes it from four aspects: first, the real estate regulation policy. There are three problems: tax policy, monetary policy and land policy. Changsha City government and banks exist two problems; third, real estate control target groups. There are two problems: buyers and real estate developers; fourth, real estate regulatory environment. Based on the analysis and summary of the policy implementation, the paper puts forward the feasible policy recommendations for the real estate market regulation from these four aspects.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.27

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