豫西山区农户贫困脆弱性测度研究

发布时间：2018-06-13 15:03

本文选题：豫西山区 + 农户　；参考：《西北农林科技大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着扶贫工作的深入，其实际效果正在逐步减弱，既定的扶贫政策已不能满足当今及以后的减贫需要，突出表现在返贫、脱贫率的交替变动使得贫困发生率难以显著降低。经济学家意识到，家庭的福利不仅取决于当期的收入和消费，也取决于未来可能的风险。贫困脆弱性的概念应运而生，其具有前瞻性、风险性和关注微观层面的优越性，迅速成为贫困研究的热点。中国山区生活着将近一半的农民，生活水平较低，农村劳动力转移的背景下，其收入和消费状况呈现新的特征，也引起贫困发生新的变化，因而有必要研究外出务工形势下的农户贫困脆弱性问题。此外，以往的相关研究多是侧重于纯粹的测度分析，未展开影响因素整体研究，文章则通过对豫西山区农户贫困脆弱性分类探讨弥补了这方面的不足。文章首先介绍了研究背景、目的及意义和相关研究动态，在此基础上阐明贫困脆弱性发生机理，并明确了本文的评价方法以及分析范式。然后，运用调研数据分析了豫西山区农户生计现状，通过贫困指数和生计脆弱性对研究区域农户生计做了系统概括。再次，建立农户未来消费均值与消费方差模型，基于VEP模型运用三阶段最小二乘法度量贫困脆弱性，进行了总体和分类讨论，并结合分位数回归方法剖析贫困脆弱性影响因素在各脆弱性层次作用异同。最后，对全文进行总结和研究展望，提出降低贫困脆弱性的具体建议。通过研究，得到的一般性结论有：（1）豫西山区农民相对比较贫困，生计脆弱性高，且这种状况地区差异显著，东西部问题突出，需重点扶持。（2）外出务工能够能够影响贫困脆弱性，是通过作用于消费均值和消费方差实现的，其能够显著影响农户未来消费均值，但是只有低外出务工水平农户才能通过外出务工降低未来消费波动。（3）研究区域农户贫困脆弱性程度整体较低，受地域因素影响较为明显，，东部地区脆弱度最高，中部最低；贫困脆弱性地区间分化较为严重，农民家庭个体之间也差别较大。（4）贫困脆弱性与农户耕地面积、家庭劳动力数量、社区因素和家庭当期消费对数呈负向关系，社会关系变量降低贫困脆弱性的作用仅对中低脆弱性家庭影响显著，家庭遭受疾病冲击和户主年龄与贫困脆弱性呈现正向关系。（5）整体意义上贫困脆弱性分类剖析结果表明，高脆弱性农户对风险因子和强化因子比较敏感，而中低脆弱性农户则主要受到风险因子和稳定因子的影响，以此为前提能够从宏观和微观角度指导减贫实践。（6）应当从家庭和政府层面采取措施降低农户贫困脆弱性。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of poverty alleviation, its actual effect is gradually weakening. The established poverty alleviation policies can not meet the needs of poverty reduction nowadays and later, and the prominent manifestation is the return to poverty, and the alternation of poverty eradication rate makes it difficult to reduce the incidence of poverty significantly. Economists realize that family welfare depends not only on current income and consumption, but also on possible future risks. The concept of poverty vulnerability emerges as the times require, and it has the advantages of foresight, risk and attention to micro level. Under the background of the low standard of living and the transfer of rural labor force, the income and consumption of nearly half of the peasants living in the mountainous areas of China show new characteristics, which also cause new changes in poverty. Therefore, it is necessary to study the vulnerability of peasant households to poverty under the situation of migrant workers. In addition, most of the previous studies focus on the pure measurement analysis, but not on the overall study of the influencing factors. The paper makes up for the deficiency by classifying the poverty vulnerability of rural households in the mountainous area of Yuxi. This paper first introduces the research background, purpose, significance and related research trends, then clarifies the mechanism of vulnerability to poverty, and clarifies the evaluation method and analytical paradigm of this paper. Then, the paper analyzes the current situation of farmers' livelihood in the mountainous area of Yuxi by using the survey data, and makes a systematic summary of the farmers' livelihood in the study area through poverty index and livelihood vulnerability. Thirdly, the model of household consumption mean and consumption variance in the future is established. Based on VEP model, the poverty vulnerability is measured by using three-stage least square method, and the overall and classification are discussed. The effects of poverty vulnerability factors on different vulnerability levels were analyzed with quantile regression method. Finally, the paper summarizes and prospects the whole paper, and puts forward some concrete suggestions to reduce the vulnerability of poverty. Through research, the general conclusions are: 1) the farmers in the western mountainous areas of Henan Province are relatively poor and have a high livelihood vulnerability, and there are significant regional differences in this situation, and the problems between the east and the west are prominent. The migrant workers can influence the vulnerability of poverty by acting on the consumption mean and consumption variance, which can significantly affect the future consumption average of farmers. But only the peasant households with low migrant labor level can reduce the fluctuation of future consumption through migrant workers.) the poverty vulnerability degree of farmers in the study area is lower as a whole, which is obviously affected by regional factors, and the vulnerability degree is the highest in the eastern region and the lowest in the central part. There is a negative relationship between poverty vulnerability and the cultivated land area, the number of family labor, the community factors and the logarithm of household consumption. The effect of social variables on reducing poverty vulnerability is only significant for middle and low vulnerable families, and the incidence of disease impact on households and the positive relationship between the age of head of household and poverty vulnerability are positive. 5) the results show that poverty vulnerability is classified and analyzed in the overall sense. High vulnerability farmers are sensitive to risk factors and reinforcement factors, while middle and low vulnerability farmers are mainly affected by risk factors and stability factors. Therefore, we should take measures to reduce the poverty vulnerability of farmers at the level of family and government.
【学位授予单位】：西北农林科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F323.8

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