基于结构方程模型的我国省域城市化趋势研究

发布时间：2018-06-15 09:25

本文选题：城市化水平 + 结构方程模型　；参考：《天津财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：城市化是我国社会经济建设的重要内容和实现现代化的必经之路。十七大报告提出“按照统筹城乡、布局合理、节约土地、功能完善、以大带小的原则,促进大中小城市和小城镇协调发展。”十八大报告进一步明确了新型城镇化定义,加速推进了城市化建设。城乡协调发展关系到我国产业结构调整和人民生活水平的提高,对我国小康社会的全面建设意义重大。目前,城市化存在多种定义。从人口学角度,城市化为人口向城市集聚的过程。从地理学角度,城市化为居民集聚位置和用地集聚的过程。从社会学角度,城市化是居民生活方式不断由农村向城市转化的过程。从生态学角度,城市化是人类不断的寻求最适宜生活和生产活动生态系统的过程。从经济学角度,城市化是各种要素在产业之间的转移。另外,十八大报告的新型城镇化是产业支撑、人居环境、社会保障、生活方式等方面由“乡”到“城”的转化。文章将城市化定义引申为人口、社会、经济和生态环境四个方面的整体评价,并从四个方面对我国城市化水平测度。为了深入分析我国各省城市化水平,本文采用综合指标法从人口、经济、社会和生态环境四个方面构建测度城市化的指标体系,包括人口城市化、经济城市化、社会城市化和生态环境城市化4个二级指标和16个三级指标。利用我国31个省2008年和2010年的年度数据,采用偏最小二乘法,建立我国省域城市化水平测度的结构方程模型。将随机干扰引入观测数据,分析结构方程模型参数估计量的灵敏性,给出了更稳健的经验模型。2008年的经验模型显示,经济城市化、生态环境城市化是我国省域城市化发展的主导因素,其中经济城市化发挥的作用更大。2010年的经验模型显示,生态环境城市化、经济城市化成为我国城市化发展的主导因素,其中生态环境城市化逐渐占据主导地位,成为我国城市化发展的新增长点,社会城市化的作用越来越显著。根据2010年经验模型对我国省域城市化差异分析结果显示,生态指标、经济指标、城市生活指标、人口指标对城市化水平的效用依次减弱。所以加强城市生态建设对城市化的推进有较快的效果,各省应该高度关注生态指标的改善。为了提高中西部地区城市化的发展,各省在保持生态指标竞争优势的基础上必须相应的提高地区的经济发展水平。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is an important content of social and economic construction and the only way to realize modernization. According to the report of the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, "according to the principle of overall planning of urban and rural areas, rational distribution, saving land, perfect function and promoting the coordinated development of large, medium and small cities and towns," The report of the 18th National Congress further clarified the definition of new urbanization and accelerated the construction of urbanization. The coordinated development of urban and rural areas is related to the adjustment of industrial structure and the improvement of people's living standard, which is of great significance to the overall construction of a well-off society in China. At present, there are many definitions of urbanization. From the perspective of demography, urbanization is the process of population agglomeration. From the point of view of geography, urbanization is the process of resident agglomeration and land agglomeration. From the sociological point of view, urbanization is the process of the residents' way of life changing from rural to urban. From the ecological point of view, urbanization is the process of seeking the most suitable ecosystem for life and productive activities. From the angle of economics, urbanization is the transfer of various elements between industries. In addition, the new urbanization reported by the 18th National Congress is the transformation from "township" to "city" in the aspects of industrial support, living environment, social security and lifestyle. In this paper, the definition of urbanization is extended to the overall evaluation of population, society, economy and ecological environment, and the level of urbanization in China is measured from four aspects. In order to analyze the urbanization level of every province in our country, this paper uses the comprehensive index method to construct the index system to measure urbanization from four aspects of population, economy, society and ecological environment, including population urbanization and economic urbanization. Social urbanization and eco-environmental urbanization four secondary indicators and 16 tertiary indicators. Based on the annual data of 31 provinces in China in 2008 and 2010, the structural equation model of the measurement of urbanization level in provincial area of China is established by using partial least square method. By introducing random disturbance into observation data, the sensitivity of parameter estimator of structural equation model is analyzed, and a more robust empirical model is presented. The empirical model of 2008 shows that economic urbanization, Ecological environment urbanization is the leading factor in the development of urbanization in our country, in which economic urbanization plays a more important role. The empirical model in 2010 shows that ecological environment urbanization and economic urbanization become the leading factors of urbanization development in China. The ecological environment urbanization gradually occupies the leading position and becomes the new growth point of the urbanization development of our country. The function of the social urbanization is more and more obvious. According to the empirical model in 2010, the results show that the utility of ecological index, economic index, urban life index and population index on urbanization level is weakened in turn. Therefore, the enhancement of urban ecological construction has a rapid effect on urbanization, and the provinces should pay close attention to the improvement of ecological indicators. In order to improve the development of urbanization in the central and western regions, each province must raise the level of economic development on the basis of maintaining the competitive advantage of ecological indicators.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.27

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