BT模式的风险与收益研究

发布时间：2018-06-15 10:32

本文选题：BT模式 + 运作方式　；参考：《东北大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：进入21世纪以来,我国国民经济迅速发展,城镇化进程不断加快,作为民生基础的大规模基础设施和公用事业等城市配套设施急需建设,政府财政面临巨大压力,BT投融资模式在这样的背景下应运而生。BT模式将民间资本引入城市基础建设和公用事业中,既打破了政府融资瓶颈,又丰富了企业投资方式。但是作为一个在中国应用时间较短的新型投融资模式,BT模式也出现了一系列的问题：例如如何识别和评价BT项目存在的风险;BT项目的收益情况如何,如何合理的确定BT项目的投资收益。论文针对上述问题,运用归纳总结、理论分析和逻辑推理相结合的方法,主要进行了以下研究：首先,从投资人角度按项目运行阶段分析BT模式项目常见的风险,并在此基础利用模糊综合评价的方法,构建了BT模式项目的风险评价模型；其次,采用多项式样条函数通过地方政府债券的市场信息构建了BT项目的折现因子,之后通过净现值模型来判断BT项目的投资收益。最后采用理论与实例相结合的方法,分析了长春地铁2号线一期工程BT项目风险大小与投资收益。从投资风险角度,长春地铁2号线一期工程BT项目整体风险较小,在二级指标中建设风险应重点防范,其次为回购风险和融资风险。从投资收益角度,企业投资于该项目的收益较投资于地方政府债券的收益高。从项目总体的角度,企业投资BT项目不但风险小,收益好,同时企业还可以获得社会知名度的增加、投资渠道的丰富等其他效用。
[Abstract]:Since the beginning of the 21st century, the national economy of our country has developed rapidly and the process of urbanization has been speeding up. As the foundation of people's livelihood, large-scale infrastructure, public utilities and other supporting facilities in cities are in urgent need of construction. Government Finance facing enormous pressure BT Investment and financing Model emerges as the times require under such background. BT model introduces private capital into urban infrastructure and public utilities, which not only breaks the bottleneck of government financing, but also enriches the investment mode of enterprises. However, as a new investment and financing model in China for a short time, there are a series of problems: for example, how to identify and evaluate the risk of BT project and how to evaluate the income of BT project. How to determine the reasonable return on investment of BT project. Aiming at the above problems, this paper mainly studies the following problems by using the methods of inductive summary, theoretical analysis and logical reasoning: firstly, from the perspective of investors, the common risks of BT mode projects are analyzed according to the stage of project operation. On this basis, the risk assessment model of BT project is constructed by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Secondly, the discount factor of BT project is constructed by using polynomial spline function through the market information of local government bonds. Then the net present value model is used to judge the investment income of BT project. In the end, the paper analyzes the risk and investment income of BT project of Changchun Metro Line 2 by combining theory with practical example. From the point of view of investment risk, the overall risk of BT project in the first phase of Changchun Metro Line 2 project is relatively small, and the construction risk should be focused on in the secondary index, followed by repurchase risk and financing risk. From the point of view of investment income, the return on investment in this project is higher than that on local government bonds. From the overall point of view of the project, the enterprise investment BT project not only has small risk and good income, but also can obtain other utility, such as the increase of social popularity and the enrichment of investment channels.
【学位授予单位】：东北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.24

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