中日贸易隐含碳排放及影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-06-25 10:16

本文选题：中日贸易 + 隐含碳排放　；参考：《安徽财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：自21世纪以来,中国对外进出口贸易飞速发展,大规模的国际贸易给中国带来了巨大的经济产值和就业机会,但也造成了大量的能源消耗、碳排放和环境破坏,国际贸易与碳排放的关系及相互作用日益受到国际社会的关注。随着中日双边经贸关系的不断深化,双方都成为彼此非常重要的贸易伙伴。目前中国的碳排放量与十年前相比增长了两倍多,中国成为全球碳排放最多的国家,而日本的碳排放量一直处于稳定状态,研究中日之间是否因贸易引起了碳排放转移具有十分重要的意义。首先本文在提出隐含碳的概念,并分析贸易对环境的影响及国际贸易污染责任认定原则等相关理论的基础上,根据中日投入产出表、能源消耗统计和中日进出口数据结合投入产出模型计算了2002-2011年间中日进出口贸易中隐含碳排放量及其差额。结果表明,2002-2011年间中日贸易隐含碳排放量与进出口贸易额的增减变动趋势基本一致,以2009年为转折点出现先增骤减又回升的现象。中日贸易中的净出口隐含碳排放量说明中国在此双边贸易中是隐含碳排放净出口国,这也表明日本通过双边贸易将部分碳排放转移到了中国,这不利于我国碳减排目标的实现。然后,本文利用基于投入产出模型的结构分解分析法从结构效应、技术效应、规模效应三个方面对影响中日贸易隐含碳排放的因素进行了分解分析。结果表明,中国对日本出口隐含碳排放的变化主要取决于规模效应和技术效应的共同作用,而规模效应是促进中国出口贸易隐含碳排放增长的主要因素,结构效应的促进作用较小,技术效应是出口隐含碳排放增长的抑制因素。在进口隐含碳排放中各年的规模效应作用也均为正向,技术效应为负向,结构效应先负后正。与出口情况相同的是规模效应也是影响进口贸易隐含碳排放的关键因素。从分行业部门分析,中国对日本出口的各行业隐含碳排放系数均比进口行业高。最后本文结合实证分析结果提出了减少中国隐含碳排放的相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the 21st century, China's foreign import and export trade has developed rapidly. The large-scale international trade has brought huge economic output and employment opportunities to China, but it has also caused a lot of energy consumption, carbon emissions and environmental damage. The relationship and interaction between international trade and carbon emissions have been paid more and more attention by the international community. With the deepening of bilateral economic and trade relations, both sides have become very important trading partners. China's carbon emissions have more than tripled compared with a decade ago, and China has become the world's largest carbon emitter, while Japan's carbon emissions have been stable. It is of great significance to study whether the trade between China and Japan has caused carbon transfer. First of all, on the basis of putting forward the concept of implied carbon, and analyzing the influence of trade on environment and the principle of pollution liability in international trade, this paper bases on the input-output table of China and Japan. The energy consumption statistics and the import and export data of China and Japan combined with the input-output model are used to calculate the implied carbon emissions and their differences in the Sino-Japanese import and export trade from 2002 to 2011. The results show that the change trend of implied carbon emissions from 2002 to 2011 is basically consistent with the increase and decrease of import and export trade. The implied carbon emissions from net exports in Sino-Japanese trade show that China is a net exporter of implied carbon emissions in the bilateral trade, which also indicates that Japan has transferred some of its carbon emissions to China through bilateral trade, which is not conducive to the realization of China's carbon emission reduction target. Then, the structural decomposition analysis method based on input-output model is used to analyze the factors that affect the implied carbon emissions of Sino-Japanese trade from three aspects: structural effect, technical effect and scale effect. The results show that the change of implied carbon emissions from China's exports to Japan mainly depends on the joint effect of scale effect and technological effect, and scale effect is the main factor to promote the increase of implied carbon emissions in China's export trade. The effect of structural effect is small and the technical effect is the restraining factor of export implied carbon emission growth. The scale effect in each year is positive, the technical effect is negative, and the structure effect is negative first and then positive. As with exports, scale effect is also a key factor affecting implied carbon emissions in import trade. The implied carbon emission coefficient of China's export to Japan is higher than that of import industry. Finally, based on the results of empirical analysis, the paper puts forward some policy recommendations to reduce China's implied carbon emissions.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752;F753.13;F205

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