中国农业生产函数估计及农业投入产出研究

发布时间：2018-06-26 20:07

本文选题：农业生产函数 + ARIMA模型　；参考：《统计与决策》2015年15期

【摘要】：文章根据中国农业1978~2013年的投入产出数据,首先把建立了农业增加值的对数ARIMA(1,1,0)时序模型。构造农业增加值关于劳动投入、机械总动力、化肥施用量、有效灌溉面积、农作物总播种面积之间的Cobb-Douglas函数(即多元对数线性回归),逐步回归分析,得到农业增加值与劳动投入负相关与化肥施用量的正相关,回归方程表明了农业科技的重要性和人力因素的次要性。然后,利用2013年31地区农业生产要素,提取出农业人力财政投入因子和非人力财政投入因子进行定量综合评价。最后,由非参检验中的位置检验、中位数检验得到2013年我国西部与东部农业产出存在显著性差异的结论。
[Abstract]:Based on the input-output data of Chinese agriculture from 1978 to 2013, the logarithmic Arima (1 ~ 1 ~ 0) time series model of agricultural added value is first established in this paper. The Cobb-Douglas function (i.e. multiple logarithmic linear regression) between agricultural added value on labor input, total power of machinery, amount of fertilizer application, effective irrigation area and total planting area of crops was constructed, and stepwise regression analysis was made. The positive correlation between agricultural added value and labor input was obtained. The regression equation showed the importance of agricultural science and technology and the secondary importance of human factors. Then, the factors of agricultural production in 2013 31 are used to extract the factors of agricultural manpower financial input and non-human financial input for quantitative comprehensive evaluation. Finally, by the position test of non-parametric test and median test, we can conclude that there is a significant difference in agricultural output between western and eastern China in 2013.
【作者单位】：华中师范大学数学与统计学学院;
【基金】：湖北省统计科研计划项目重点项目(HB131-28)
【分类号】：F323;F223

【共引文献】