基于CA-Markov模型的黑龙江农牧交错带土地利用变化研究

发布时间：2018-07-03 21:09

本文选题：黑龙江农牧交错带 + 土地利用与土地覆盖　；参考：《东北农业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：土地利用与土地覆盖的变化(LUCC)是由自然因素和人为因素综合作用的结果。近年来,土地利用中的矛盾日益加剧,因此开展土地利用的预测研究对土地资源管理,维持区域社会经济可持续发展具有重要意义。本研究中,通过对遥感影像进行解译得到了黑龙江13个农牧交错带地区大庆市、齐齐哈尔市、青冈县、富裕县、肇源县、甘南县、杜尔伯特蒙古自治县、龙江县、安达县、林甸县、明水县、兰西县、肇东市、肇州县、泰来县2001、2012年的土地利用图。对2012年黑龙江农牧交错带的土地利用图进行了分析,研究了黑龙江农牧交错带的土地利用现状,并结合气象、DEM等数据分析了黑龙江农牧交错带的土地利用的驱动力。结合GIS与CA-MARKOV模型,以不同时期的土地利用图和不同土地利用类型的转移规律为基础,对黑龙江农牧交错带地区的土地利用进行了预测研究。结果表明： (1)在2001-2012年间,除盐碱地、草地有所减少外,耕地和水域均有不同程度的增加,其中农田面积增加了9300.43平方公里,水域增加了330.39平方公里。盐碱地减少了2431.21平方公里,草地减少了7199.61平方公里。 (2)黑龙江农牧交错带耕地趋向于集中在海拔151m-200m范围内；水域、草地、盐碱地趋向集中在海拔101m-150m的范围内。在高于200米的高程范围内,随着高程的增高,耕地面积增加量越来越少；水域面积的增加量主要集中在101m-150m的高程范围内,增加比例为81%；盐碱地的增加趋势和水域相同；而草地的增加面积则是随着高程的增高越来越少,在高程为101-150范围里,草地增加面积最大,比例达到50.58%。 (3)在只考虑气象和地形等因素的条件下,根据CA-Markov模型预测的黑龙江农牧交错带2023年土地利用预测图与2012年土地利用遥感解译图相比,耕地和水域的面积将会有一定幅度的增加,草地和盐碱地面积呈现减少趋势。高程值大的区域,农田和草地相互转化的面积最大。 (4)驱动力因素主要考虑两个方面,即自然因素和社会因素。本文通过对气象数据和地形数据的处理作出相关驱动力分析,而社会因素包括经济因素和人口数量。结合气象因素考虑,温度的升高有利于农作物的生长,导致更多适宜生长农作物的地区出现,加快了耕地面积的增加。降水量逐渐增多,气温逐步升高,适合农业发展,对盐碱地的治理和利用有相当大的作用,所以盐碱地面积减少。畜牧业生产与种植业、林业等其他产业相比存在投入多、风险大的不利因素。有关部门对畜牧业生产的指导服务作用仍显薄弱,限制了牧业发展。农牧交错带是生态脆弱地区,其土地利用土地覆盖变化存在一定的偶然性和必然性,为此,相应部门应针对不同地区土地特征进行合理的开发计划,以提高土地利用的效率和保障生态环境的平稳和长期可持续发展。
[Abstract]:Land use and land cover change (Lucc) is the result of both natural and human factors. In recent years, the contradiction in land use is becoming more and more serious, so it is of great significance to carry out the research of land use prediction to manage land resources and maintain the sustainable development of regional social economy. In this study, the 13 agricultural and pastoral interlaced regions of Heilongjiang, Daqing City, Qiqihar City, Qinggang County, Fuyu County, Zhaoyuan County, Gannan County, Durbert Mongol Autonomous County, Longjiang County, and Anda County were obtained by the interpretation of remote sensing images. Lindian County, Mingshui County, Lanxi County, Zhaodong City, Zhaozhou County, Tailai County, 2001, 2012 land use map. The land use map of the agricultural and pastoral ecotone in Heilongjiang in 2012 was analyzed. The present situation of land use in the agricultural and pastoral ecotone of Heilongjiang was studied, and the driving force of land use in the agricultural and pastoral ecotone in Heilongjiang was analyzed with the data of meteorological Dem and so on. On the basis of GIS and CA-MARKOV model, based on the land use map of different periods and the law of different land use types, the land use in the agricultural and pastoral ecotone of Heilongjiang was forecasted and studied. The results are as follows: (1) in the period of 2001-2012, except saline-alkali land and grassland, the cultivated land and water area increased to some extent, in which the farmland area increased by 9300.43 square kilometers and the water area increased by 330.39 square kilometers. The saline-alkali land decreased by 2431.21 square kilometers and the grassland decreased by 7199.61 square kilometers. (2) the cultivated land tended to be concentrated in the range of 151m-200m above sea level in the agricultural and pastoral ecotone of Heilongjiang province, and the water area, grassland and saline-alkali land tended to be concentrated in the range of 101m-150m above sea level. In the range of elevation above 200m, with the elevation increasing, the increase of cultivated land area is less and less, the increase of water area is mainly concentrated in the elevation range of 101m-150m, the proportion of increase is 81.The increasing trend of saline-alkali land is the same as that of water area. However, the increasing area of grassland is less and less with the elevation increasing. In the range of 101-150 elevation, the increase of grassland area is the largest, and the proportion reaches 50.58. (3) under the condition of considering only meteorological and topographic factors, Compared with the remote sensing map of land use in 2012, the land use forecast map of 2023 based on CA-Markov model will increase the area of cultivated land and water area, and decrease the area of grassland and saline-alkali land. In the region with high elevation value, the area of conversion between farmland and grassland is the largest. (4) the driving force factors mainly consider two aspects, that is, natural factor and social factor. This paper analyzes the driving force of meteorological data and topographic data processing, and social factors include economic factors and population size. Considering the meteorological factors, the increase of temperature is favorable to the growth of crops, which leads to the emergence of more suitable areas for growing crops, and accelerates the increase of cultivated land area. The precipitation increases gradually and the temperature rises gradually, which is suitable for the development of agriculture and plays a significant role in the treatment and utilization of saline-alkali land, so the area of saline-alkali land is reduced. Compared with other industries, such as planting and forestry, animal husbandry has more investment and higher risk. The relevant department to the animal husbandry production guidance service function is still weak, restricted the animal husbandry development. The ecotone of agriculture and animal husbandry is an ecologically fragile area, and its land use and land cover change has some contingency and inevitability. Therefore, the relevant departments should carry out reasonable development plans according to the land characteristics of different regions. In order to improve the efficiency of land use and ensure the stable and long-term sustainable development of the ecological environment.
【学位授予单位】：东北农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F301.2;F224

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