制度质量对中国对外贸易的促进效应——基于向量误差修正模型的考察

发布时间：2018-07-06 20:00

本文选题：制度质量 + 贸易波动　；参考：《国际经贸探索》2015年02期

【摘要】：文章构建了一个"中国化"的制度质量指标来测算中国1978~2012年制度质量,进而通过向量误差修正模型(VECM)分析了中国制度质量与对外贸易的长期均衡和短期动态关系。结果表明,制度质量在短期和长期对我国对外贸易的促进效应分别达到2.12%和2.26%,制度质量改善是促进我国外贸增长的重要内生渠道。文章还发现,我国对外贸易短期波动与长期均衡值偏差仅有23%能够自我修正,对外贸易短期动态调整机制的修正效果并不理想。由于二者长期均衡关系足够稳定,文章认为应当从制度质量改善与对我国对外贸易发展互动视角制定相关政策进行适当干预。
[Abstract]:This paper constructs a "Chinese" institutional quality index to measure the institutional quality of China from 1978 to 2012, and then analyzes the long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamic relationship between China's institutional quality and foreign trade through the vector error correction model (VECM). The results show that the short-term and long-term effects of institutional quality on China's foreign trade are 2.12% and 2.26% respectively, and the improvement of institutional quality is an important endogenous channel to promote the growth of China's foreign trade. It is also found that the deviation between the short-term fluctuation and the long-term equilibrium value of China's foreign trade can only be corrected by 23%, and the effect of the short-term dynamic adjustment mechanism of foreign trade is not satisfactory. As the long-term equilibrium relationship between the two is stable enough, the article holds that the relevant policies should be properly intervened from the perspective of institutional quality improvement and the interactive development of China's foreign trade.
【作者单位】：浙江财经大学经济与国际贸易学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金青年项目(11CJL033) 浙江省哲学社会科学规划立项课题(14NDJC120YB) 浙江省台办委托课题(201401) 浙江省商务研究院、浙江省国际经济贸易学会委托招标课题(CZ201408)
【分类号】：F752.7;F224

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