新疆劳动力资源的有限供给特征与多维度解析

发布时间：2018-07-29 11:49

【摘要】：针对新疆当前农业劳动力季节性短缺、劳动力引进难度加大、企业用工需求难以满足的现象,结合新疆"大农业"的产业结构、半封闭的劳动力市场等区域特征,分析人口抚养比、老龄化程度的现状,以及未来劳动力供求的变化趋势,探讨新疆劳动力转向有限供给的深层原因。结果表明,与全国及西部地区比较,从劳动生产率、比较劳动生产率、劳动参与率和就业—产业结构协调度等方面,新疆劳动力供给总量已难以满足未来跨越式发展的需求,从而较全国其它地区将更早迎来刘易斯拐点,进入劳动力有限供给时代。但是,导致新疆现阶段劳动力供给有限的主要原因并不是劳动力总量的不足,而是劳动参与率较低、就业结构与产业结构的不协调,劳动力净流入数量不断减少也是短期内出现劳动力有限供给的原因之一。因此,提出了提高劳动参与率、优化产业结构,调整劳动力政策,创新劳动力配置模式等政策建议。
[Abstract]:In view of the current seasonal shortage of agricultural labor force in Xinjiang, the increasing difficulty in introducing labor force, and the difficulty in meeting the demand for employment in enterprises, combined with the industrial structure of "big agriculture" in Xinjiang, the semi-closed labor market and other regional characteristics, This paper analyzes the current situation of population dependency ratio, the degree of aging, and the changing trend of labor supply and demand in the future, and probes into the deep reasons for the shift of labor force to limited supply in Xinjiang. The results show that, compared with the national and western regions, the total supply of labor force in Xinjiang can not meet the needs of leap-forward development in the future from the aspects of labor productivity, comparative labor productivity, labor participation rate and employment-industrial structure coordination. Thus the other regions of the country will usher in the Lewis inflection point earlier, enter the era of limited supply of labor. However, the main reason for the limited labor supply in Xinjiang at the present stage is not the shortage of total labor force, but the low labor participation rate and the disharmony between the employment structure and the industrial structure. Declining net labor inflows are also one of the reasons for the limited supply of labor in the short term. Therefore, some policy suggestions are put forward, such as improving the labor force participation rate, optimizing the industrial structure, adjusting the labor force policy and innovating the labor force allocation mode.
【作者单位】：塔里木大学经济管理学院;华中农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目(13AGL004) 新疆兵团社会科学基金项目(13YB21)
【分类号】：F249.27

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