郓城县煤化工物流园建设项目风险评估研究

发布时间：2018-08-15 16:37

【摘要】：本文在梳理国际国内项目风险管理研究现状,综述项目风险管理理论的基础上,综合考虑郓城县煤化工物流园建设项目风险管理现状,特别是相对落后地区政策影响的因素,根据工作表法识别了郓城县煤化工物流园建设项目风险,并采用模糊综合评价的方法对郓城县煤化工物流园项目风险进行综合评估,根据综合评估结果产业政策环境风险较大的结果,提出郓城县煤化工物流园项目风险预防、风险分担与风险削减措施。具体研究框架如下。首先,本文针对物流园建设项目风险评估的理论进行了系统梳理,总结了国内外关于物流园建设项目风险评估的研究现状,为物流园建设项目风险评估奠定坚实的理论基础。物流园建设项目在国内方兴未艾,国家对物流业的重视程度与日俱增,本文对物流园建设项目风险评估的理论研究进行了系统梳理,为同类项目研究提供了参考。其次,本文构建了煤化工物流园项目风险评估体系。针对郓城县煤化工物流园建设项目各个环节进行分析,分析识别项目存在的风险因素,采用解释结构模型构建了郓城县煤化工物流园建设项目风险评估的指标体系,确定了6个二级指标和19个三级指标,再次基础上利用层次分析方法对各个指标进行赋权,然后结合专家打分对郓城县煤化工物流园项目进行模糊综合评分,得出风险值。并对评价指标体系中二级指标与三级指标进行风险值分解,从而得出模糊综合评价的进一步分析。最后,本文针对郓城县煤化工物流园建设项目风险评估结果提出了风险防范的对策和建议。对规划阶段与营运管理阶段不同的风险因素提出风险管理措施,规划阶段,要从本地的实际物流需求出发,先建立试点,一点点积累业务量,慢慢推广,不断扩大。营运管理阶段,要制定切实可行的业务规划,制定企业风险管理条例,成立风险管理部门,设置风险管理信息系统,科学有效的管控风险,并投保相关保险,将潜在损失降到最低。同时,要不断提高人员素质和服务质量。
[Abstract]:On the basis of summarizing the theory of project risk management and combing the present situation of international and domestic project risk management, this paper synthetically considers the present situation of risk management in Yuncheng Coal Chemical Industry Logistics Park construction project, especially the influence factors of relative backward area policy. According to the worksheet method, the project risk of Yuncheng coal chemical logistics park is identified, and the project risk of Yuncheng coal chemical logistics park is evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. According to the result of comprehensive evaluation, the paper puts forward the measures of risk prevention, risk sharing and risk reduction in Yuncheng Coal Chemical Industry Logistics Park project. The specific research framework is as follows. Firstly, this paper systematically combs the theory of risk assessment of logistics park construction project, summarizes the research status of logistics park construction project risk assessment at home and abroad, and lays a solid theoretical foundation for logistics park construction project risk assessment. The logistics park construction project is in the ascendant in our country, the country pays more and more attention to the logistics industry. This paper systematically combs the theory research of the logistics park construction project risk assessment, provides the reference for the similar project research. Secondly, this paper constructs the project risk assessment system of coal chemical logistics park. This paper analyzes every link of Yuncheng coal chemical logistics park construction project, analyzes the risk factors existing in the project, and constructs the index system of Yuncheng coal chemical logistics park construction project risk assessment by using the explanatory structure model. Six second-class indexes and 19 third-grade indexes were determined, and then each index was weighted by AHP method, then the project of Yuncheng Coal Chemical Industry Logistics Park was scored with experts' score, and the risk value was obtained. The risk value of the secondary index and the third grade index in the evaluation index system is decomposed, and the further analysis of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is obtained. Finally, according to the risk assessment results of Yuncheng coal chemical logistics park construction project, the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions of risk prevention. This paper puts forward risk management measures for different risk factors in planning stage and operation management stage. In the planning stage, starting from the actual local logistics demand, we should first set up pilot projects, accumulate business little by little, and gradually popularize and expand. In the operational management phase, it is necessary to formulate feasible business plans, formulate enterprise risk management regulations, set up risk management departments, set up risk management information systems, scientifically and effectively manage risks, and insure related insurance, Minimize potential losses. At the same time, to constantly improve the quality of personnel and service quality.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F259.27

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