江苏省新型城镇化水平的影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-08-20 08:30

【摘要】：“十二五”新时期,江苏省根据新时期科学发展的新要求,提出了城乡发展一体化的新型城镇化战略。随着江苏省的人口红利和制度红利逐渐的消耗,如何利用江苏省调整产业结构的契机,充分释放改革红利,从而更好地构建新型城镇化的可持续发展道路,成为理论研究的新议题。本文在这种背景下,从江苏省新型城镇化内涵的界定、影响因素以及对新型城镇化的前景的预测这三个角度出发,界定新型城镇化的发展质量与发展速度的合理区间,由此构建的新型城镇化的研究框架,有助于丰富和拓展新型城镇化发展理论,为系统研究新型城镇化可持续发展提供了有效的分析工具。文章首先界定了江苏省新型城镇化的内涵。然后根据霍利斯·钱纳里的“发展模式”理论,对江苏省新型城镇化的发展水平进行对比分析,从而对江苏省现阶段的新型城镇化水平做了初步判断。其次,本文选取产业结构、科技教育、人口结构和基础设施这四个一级指标,并在此基础上又细分为经济发展等10个二级指标来分析江苏省新型城镇化的影响因素。然后,本文使用江苏省1990-2012年间的面板数据,运用主成分分析和广义最小二乘估计等方法对江苏省新型城镇化的影响因素进行实证分析,从而在实证中对江苏省新型城镇化水平及其影响因素做了定量分析。经过以上的理论分析和实证检验,文本最后构建一个数理模型,同时使用时间序列预测方法来对江苏省未来的新型城镇化发展水平做一个趋势预测,以便更加直观地对江苏省今后的新型城镇化建设提出更有针对性和更加合理性的建议,从而提高江苏省城镇居民和农村居民的收入水平、增加城镇就业,最终促进江苏省新型城镇化的可持续发展。文章的创新点在于,采用“钱纳里偏差”方法来判断江苏省新型城镇化水平合理与否,同时建立面板数据模型,运用了主成分分析法和广义最小二乘估计法对新型城镇化水平的影响因素进行实证分析。文章最后还采用诺瑟姆曲线来判断江苏省城镇化的发展阶段,并构造了时间序列数理模型对江苏省城镇化水平的未来发展趋势和前景进行预测,最后在此基础上提出相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In the new period of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, according to the new requirements of scientific development in the new period, Jiangsu Province put forward a new urbanization strategy of integration of urban and rural development. With the gradual consumption of population dividend and institutional dividend in Jiangsu Province, how to make use of the opportunity of adjusting the industrial structure in Jiangsu Province, and fully release the reform dividend, so as to better construct the sustainable development road of new urbanization. Become a new topic of theoretical research. Under this background, from the three angles of defining the connotation of new urbanization in Jiangsu Province, influencing factors and forecasting the prospect of new urbanization, this paper defines the reasonable range of development quality and speed of new urbanization. The new urbanization research framework is helpful to enrich and expand the new urbanization development theory and provide an effective analysis tool for the systematic study of the new urbanization sustainable development. The article first defines the connotation of new urbanization in Jiangsu Province. Then according to Hollis Chanari's theory of "development mode", the author makes a comparative analysis of the development level of new urbanization in Jiangsu Province, and makes a preliminary judgment on the level of new urbanization in Jiangsu Province at present. Secondly, this paper selects four primary indicators of industrial structure, science and technology education, population structure and infrastructure, and on this basis, divides them into 10 secondary indicators, such as economic development, to analyze the influencing factors of new urbanization in Jiangsu Province. Then, using panel data of Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2012, using principal component analysis (PCA) and generalized least square estimation (GLS), this paper empirically analyzes the influencing factors of new urbanization in Jiangsu Province. Thus, quantitative analysis is made on the new urbanization level and its influencing factors in Jiangsu Province. After the above theoretical analysis and empirical test, the paper constructs a mathematical model and uses the time series prediction method to predict the trend of the new urbanization development level in Jiangsu Province in the future. In order to more intuitively put forward more targeted and more reasonable suggestions for the construction of new urbanization in Jiangsu Province in the future, so as to raise the income level of urban and rural residents in Jiangsu Province, and increase urban employment. Finally, promote the sustainable development of new urbanization in Jiangsu Province. The innovation of the paper lies in the use of the "Chenari deviation" method to judge whether the new urbanization level in Jiangsu Province is reasonable or not, and the establishment of panel data model. Principal component Analysis (PCA) and Generalized least Squares estimation (GLS) are used to analyze the influencing factors of new urbanization level. Finally, the paper uses Northam curve to judge the development stage of urbanization in Jiangsu Province, and constructs a mathematical model of time series to predict the future development trend and prospect of urbanization level in Jiangsu Province. Finally, on the basis of this, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.27

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