基于会计信息的先行指数及其相关性研究

发布时间：2018-09-11 08:28

【摘要】：企业是国民经济的微观基础,上市公司作为公众企业,一直是各界关注的焦点。而反映上市公司的财务状况、经营成果和现金流量的会计信息更是最受社会关注的信息之一。会计信息不仅是企业管理者、外部投资者、债权人、税务机关等利益相关者进行经营管理决策、投资或监管的重要依据,而且是一种揭示经济发展和社会进步的基础性信息,具有服务于宏观经济管理的巨大潜力。如何利用会计信息服务于宏观经济管理,值得探讨。本文借鉴宏观经济景气指数的编制方法,在会计指数研究成果基础之上,构建基于企业会计信息的先行指数,并对基于会计信息的先行指数与采用统计方法编制的景气指数的相关性进行探讨。本文的研究,是一种拓展会计信息用途、提高会计信息利用价值的尝试,是会计指数理论研究的发展和创新。选取全部A股上市公司2007-2012年共24个季度的主要财务指标,首先通过取样本中位数、指标正向化、季节调整和标准化等方法对财务指标进行预处理,然后采用时差相关分析法、聚类分析法等方法确定先行指标,采用采用主成分分析法确定指标权重,分别编制每一家公司的先行指数(ELI)、行业先行指数(ILI)和全部企业先行总指数(WELI)。最后,计算全部企业先行总指数(WELI)与国内生产总值季度指数(GDPI)、国家统计局企业调查队编制的企业景气指数(SEPI)的相关系数及其显著性。结果发现,WELI与GDPI的相关系数为0.534,在0.05水平上显著,而且两者的走势十分相似：WELI与SEPI相关系数达到0.689,在0.01水平上显著,而且两者的走势也极为相似。本文的研究发现,为会计信息在宏观经济监测和预警中的作用提供了经验证据。
[Abstract]:Enterprises are the micro-foundation of national economy, listed companies as public enterprises, has been the focus of attention. Accounting information, which reflects the financial situation, operating results and cash flow of listed companies, is one of the most concerned information. Accounting information is not only an important basis for enterprise managers, external investors, creditors, tax authorities and other stakeholders to make management decisions, investment or supervision, but also a basic information to reveal economic development and social progress. It has great potential to serve macroeconomic management. How to use accounting information to serve macroeconomic management is worth discussing. This paper draws lessons from the compilation method of macroeconomic boom index and constructs the leading index based on enterprise accounting information on the basis of the research results of accounting index. The correlation between the leading index based on accounting information and the prosperity index compiled by statistical method is discussed. The research of this paper is an attempt to expand the use of accounting information and improve the value of accounting information utilization. It is also the development and innovation of the theoretical study of accounting index. The main financial indexes of all A-share listed companies for 24 quarters from 2007 to 2012 were selected. Firstly, the financial indexes were pretreated by sampling median, positive index, seasonal adjustment and standardization, and then time difference correlation analysis was used. Cluster analysis and other methods are used to determine the leading index, and the principal component analysis method is used to determine the index weight. The industry leading index (ILI) of each company and the total leading index (WELI).) of all enterprises are compiled respectively. Finally, the correlation coefficient and significance of the enterprise boom index (SEPI) compiled by the enterprise survey team of the National Bureau of Statistics and the quarterly index of gross domestic product (GDPI),) are calculated. The results show that the correlation coefficient between WELI and GDPI is 0.534, which is significant at 0.05 level, and the correlation coefficient between WELI and SEPI is very similar. The correlation coefficient between WELI and SEPI is 0.689, and the trend of both is very similar. The findings of this paper provide empirical evidence for the role of accounting information in macroeconomic monitoring and early warning.
【学位授予单位】：湖北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F275;F224

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