我国劳动报酬份额提升的适度水平及其实现路径

发布时间：2018-10-11 09:20

【摘要】：中国劳动报酬份额变动情况、影响因素以及提升水平一直是众多学者研究的重点。大多数学者都认为中国的劳动报酬份额处于低水平稳定的状态，并且受经济增长、资本深化、对外开放、教育水平、国有化、产业结构、政府干预等多方面因素的影响，但是对于劳动报酬份额提升的适度水平却鲜有测算。本文通过建立向量误差修正（VEC）模型，从长期角度考察劳动报酬份额与各影响因素之间的关系。在对模型进行协整检验、滞后结构检验以及平稳性检验之后，结合对中国第二产业变化趋势的研究以及经济发展的实际情况，测算劳动报酬份额提升的适度水平。研究发现，中国的劳动报酬份额受以人均国内生产总值所代表的经济发展水平及其平方项、以进出口总额占GDP比重所代表的对外开放水平、以平均受教育年限所代表的教育水平、以第二产业增加值占GDP比重所代表的产业结构以及以财政支出占GDP比重等诸多因素的影响，以上影响因素能解释劳动报酬份额89.82%的变动原因；模型的F统计量较小，模型整体的AIC值和SC值分别为-33.21和-25.19，也都较小，说明模型整体效果较为理想。在长期内，中国的劳动报酬份额受产业结构影响最大。其中第二产业增加值所占比重每增加1%，会引起劳动报酬份额减少约4%。误差修正项的系数反映了长期均衡对短期偏离的调整力度，在本模型中为-1.3117，变动方向符合模型收敛的要求，同时也是较大的调整力度。本文将Verhulst模型对第二产业增加值比重的预测作为基准，，得到2020和2025年我国劳动报酬份额分别提升至52.48%和56.46%。该适度水平既与其他国家和地区在相同阶段的发展情况相吻合，又与中国的实际情况、政策纲领相一致。最后，本文在理论模型的基础上，基于经验研究对中国劳动报酬份额提升的实现路径进行了分析，主要从工业化进程、二元经济结构、产业结构转型升级以及制度因素等角度提出了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:The change of labor compensation share, influencing factors and upgrading level have been the focus of many scholars in China. Most scholars believe that China's share of labor compensation is at a low level and stable, and is affected by economic growth, deepening capital, opening up to the outside world, education, nationalization, industrial structure, government intervention, and so on. However, the moderate level of the increase in the share of labor compensation is rarely measured. In this paper, the (VEC) model of vector error correction is established to investigate the relationship between the share of labor compensation and the influencing factors from a long-term perspective. After the cointegration test, lag structure test and stability test of the model, combined with the research on the change trend of China's secondary industry and the actual situation of economic development, the moderate level of the increase of labor compensation share is calculated. The study found that China's share of labor remuneration is represented by the level of economic development represented by the per capita gross domestic product and its square term, and by the level of opening up represented by the proportion of total imports and exports to GDP. The influence of many factors, such as the educational level represented by the average number of years of education, the industrial structure represented by the proportion of added value of secondary industry to GDP, and the proportion of financial expenditure to GDP, etc. The above factors can explain the change of labor compensation share 89.82%, the F statistic of the model is small, the AIC value and SC value of the whole model are -33.21 and -25.19, respectively, which indicate that the overall effect of the model is better. In the long-term, China's share of labor compensation is most affected by the industrial structure. Each increase in the proportion of added value of the secondary industry will cause the share of labor compensation to decrease by about 4%. The coefficient of the error correction item reflects the adjustment strength of the long term equilibrium to the short term deviation. In this model, the change direction is-1. 3117, and the change direction accords with the requirement of model convergence, and it is also a great adjustment force. In this paper, the Verhulst model is used as the benchmark to predict the proportion of added value in the second industry, and the share of labor compensation in China in 2020 and 2025 is raised to 52.48% and 56.46%, respectively. The moderate level is not only consistent with the development of other countries and regions at the same stage, but also with the actual situation of China and the policy program. Finally, based on the theoretical model and empirical research, this paper analyzes the path to increase the share of labor compensation in China, mainly from the process of industrialization, dual economic structure, Industrial structure transformation and upgrading as well as institutional factors and other angles to put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F249.24

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