基于模糊层次分析法BT项目风险分担研究
发布时间：2018-10-15 16:57
【摘要】：随着城镇化的加快，城市基础设施建设明显加强，，基础建设资金需求量巨大。由于中央和地方政府财政收入有限，投融资问题成为制约基础设施建设发展的关键。在这一背景下，BT作为一种新型的投融资模式被引入我国，并逐步在城市基础设施领域推行，发展。在BT模式中存在着许多影响BT项目成功的风险：政治风险、建造风险、金融风险、回购风险、自然风险等。对BT项目风险进行合理分担是BT项目成功的关键。 建立BT项目风险指标体系是BT项目风险合理分担的基础和前提。本文根据BT模式的基本概念、基本特征、参与主体、类别和特点、运作流程等，详细分析了BT项目风险产生的原因和BT项目风险特征，运用文献阅读法、统计分析法通过对BT项目风险分析，构建了BT项目风险指标体系。 通过对BT项目风险分担原则、分担评价标准、风险分担对象、风险分担流程等研究，进一步完善了风险分担框架。BT项目风险分担包括主层次风险分担和次层次风险分担，首次缔约阶段的风险分担和履行阶段的风险分担。在BT项目风险分担原则基础上构建了风险分担评价标准，基于模糊层次分析法和TOPSIS法构建了BT项目风险分担模型，并运用BT项目风险分担模型对一个项目的风险分担进行了研究，研究结果具有合理性和适用性。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of urbanization, the construction of urban infrastructure is obviously strengthened, and the demand for capital for infrastructure is enormous. Due to the limited financial revenue of central and local governments, the problem of investment and financing has become the key to restrict the development of infrastructure construction. In this context, BT as a new mode of investment and financing was introduced into China, and gradually implemented and developed in the field of urban infrastructure. There are many risks that affect the success of BT project in BT model: political risk, construction risk, financial risk, repurchase risk, natural risk and so on. The reasonable sharing of BT project risk is the key to the success of BT project. Establishing BT project risk index system is the foundation and premise of BT project risk reasonable sharing. According to the basic concept, basic characteristics, main body, category and characteristics of BT model, this paper analyzes the causes of BT project risk and the characteristics of BT project risk in detail, and applies the literature reading method. Based on the risk analysis of BT project, the risk index system of BT project is constructed by statistical analysis. Through the study of BT project risk sharing principle, evaluation standard, risk sharing object and risk sharing process, the risk sharing framework is further improved. BT project risk sharing includes principal level risk sharing and sub-level risk sharing. The risk sharing in the first contracting stage and in the performance stage. Based on the risk sharing principle of BT project, the risk sharing evaluation standard is constructed, and the risk sharing model of BT project is constructed based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and TOPSIS method. The BT project risk sharing model is used to study the risk sharing of a project, and the results are reasonable and applicable.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F284
本文编号：2273180
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of urbanization, the construction of urban infrastructure is obviously strengthened, and the demand for capital for infrastructure is enormous. Due to the limited financial revenue of central and local governments, the problem of investment and financing has become the key to restrict the development of infrastructure construction. In this context, BT as a new mode of investment and financing was introduced into China, and gradually implemented and developed in the field of urban infrastructure. There are many risks that affect the success of BT project in BT model: political risk, construction risk, financial risk, repurchase risk, natural risk and so on. The reasonable sharing of BT project risk is the key to the success of BT project. Establishing BT project risk index system is the foundation and premise of BT project risk reasonable sharing. According to the basic concept, basic characteristics, main body, category and characteristics of BT model, this paper analyzes the causes of BT project risk and the characteristics of BT project risk in detail, and applies the literature reading method. Based on the risk analysis of BT project, the risk index system of BT project is constructed by statistical analysis. Through the study of BT project risk sharing principle, evaluation standard, risk sharing object and risk sharing process, the risk sharing framework is further improved. BT project risk sharing includes principal level risk sharing and sub-level risk sharing. The risk sharing in the first contracting stage and in the performance stage. Based on the risk sharing principle of BT project, the risk sharing evaluation standard is constructed, and the risk sharing model of BT project is constructed based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and TOPSIS method. The BT project risk sharing model is used to study the risk sharing of a project, and the results are reasonable and applicable.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F284
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