基于协整分析的城市基础设施与城市空间增长关系研究——以兰州市为例

发布时间：2018-11-03 21:43

【摘要】：城市基础设施与城市空间增长是相互作用相互影响的,定量分析二者之间的作用关系对推动城市社会经济发展具有重要意义。文中基于1988-2012年兰州市基础设施与建设用地面积的相关数据,采用计量经济分析的协整检验、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果检验等方法,实证分析了兰州市基础设施与城市空间增长之间的相互关系。结果表明:1)兰州市城市基础设施对城市空间增长及城市空间的集约化利用具有正向的作用关系;2)当短期波动偏离长期均衡时,系统将以0.342206的调节力度将非均衡状态拉回到均衡状态。并且短期内道路基础设施是引导兰州市城市空间增长的重要变量,是兰州市城市空间增长的前导性基础设施;3)兰州市社会性基础设施与城市空间增长之间无Granger因果关系,工程性基础设施中道路基础设施与城市空间增长存在单项Granger因果关系,供水基础设施与城市空间增长互为Granger因果关系。
[Abstract]:Urban infrastructure and urban spatial growth interact with each other, and quantitative analysis of the relationship between the two plays an important role in promoting urban social and economic development. Based on the data of infrastructure and construction land area in Lanzhou from 1988 to 2012, this paper adopts the methods of econometric cointegration test, error correction model and Granger causality test, etc. The relationship between infrastructure and urban spatial growth in Lanzhou is analyzed empirically. The results show that: 1) the urban infrastructure in Lanzhou has a positive effect on urban spatial growth and intensive utilization of urban space; 2) when the short-term fluctuation deviates from the long-term equilibrium, the system will pull the non-equilibrium state back to the equilibrium state with a force of 0.342206. In the short term, the road infrastructure is an important variable to guide the urban spatial growth in Lanzhou, and is the leading infrastructure for the urban spatial growth in Lanzhou. 3) there is no Granger causality relationship between social infrastructure and urban spatial growth in Lanzhou. There is a single Granger causality between road infrastructure and urban spatial growth in engineering infrastructure. Water supply infrastructure and urban spatial growth are Granger causality.
【作者单位】：西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41161028)资助
【分类号】：F299.27

【参考文献】