中国外需隐含国内就业及其影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-11-05 20:27

【摘要】：基于世界投入产出数据库,本文采用MRIO模型测算了1995—2009年中国外需隐含国内就业的变动趋势,并采用结构分解方法分析了9种因素对中国外需隐含国内就业变化的影响。结果显示:1995—2009年,每年中国外需隐含国内就业增长了76.55%,但低技能就业始终是外需隐含就业的主体。外国最终需求产品来源地结构变动、中国前向国际产业关联变动和外国最终需求规模变动是促进中国外需隐含国内就业增长的最主要因素。但中国国内生产部门劳动投入强度变动和最终需求产品结构变动不利于中国外需隐含国内就业增长。为此,可以通过加快生产性服务业对外开放和促进生产性服务出口来扩大就业渠道,提升就业质量。
[Abstract]:Based on the world input-output database, this paper uses MRIO model to estimate the change trend of China's implicit domestic employment from 1995 to 2009, and analyzes the influence of 9 factors on the change of China's implicit domestic employment by using the method of structural decomposition. The results show that: from 1995 to 2009, China's external demand implied domestic employment increased 76.55% every year, but low-skill employment is always the main body of external implicit employment. The change of the origin structure of foreign end-demand products, the change of China's forward international industrial association and the change of foreign final demand scale are the most important factors to promote China's implicit domestic employment growth. However, the change of labor input intensity and final demand product structure in China's domestic production sector is not conducive to the implied domestic employment growth of China's external demand. Therefore, we can expand employment channels and improve employment quality by speeding up the opening of producer services to the outside world and promoting the export of producer services.
【作者单位】：厦门大学经济学院国际经济与贸易系;
【基金】：2014年度福建省社科规划项目(青年博士论文项目)“对外贸易与中国就业变化:基于MRIO模型和SDA技术的分析”(2014C044)、“中国对外贸易的碳排放转移效应及碳排放责任研究”(2014C045)资助
【分类号】：F249.2

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