刘易斯拐点的国际经验与中国前景

发布时间：2018-11-06 10:09

【摘要】：关于中国的刘易斯拐点是否到来,刘易斯拐点对中国经济意味着什么等问题一直是学界关注的焦点。考察其他国家(地区)在跨越刘易斯拐点时期的经济和劳动力市场表现可以发现,一些国家和地区如日本和韩国在跨越刘易斯拐点后仍享受着人口红利,并没有因为刘易斯拐点的到来而放缓经济增长,也没有因为劳动力成本上升而导致高通货膨胀。借鉴国际经验,结合中国实际,可以判断,中国未来非农劳动力供给仍然丰富,劳动力成本的上升对制造业竞争力的影响和通货膨胀压力的影响等都有限。中国未来经济的增长需要充分开发、整合和利用现有人口资源,选择有利于产业升级转型以及劳动力市场成功转型的产业政策,通过提升现有人力资本等奠定国民经济健康发展的基础。
[Abstract]:Whether the Lewis inflection point in China is coming or not, and what the Lewis inflection point means to the Chinese economy has always been the focus of academic attention. Looking at the economic and labour market performance of other countries (regions) over the Lewis inflection point, we can see that some countries and regions, such as Japan and South Korea, still enjoy the demographic dividend after crossing the Lewis inflection point. It has not slowed growth because of Lewis' turning point, nor has it caused high inflation because of rising labour costs. With reference to international experience and China's reality, it can be concluded that China's future non-agricultural labor supply is still abundant, and the impact of rising labor costs on the competitiveness of manufacturing industry and the impact of inflationary pressures are limited. China's future economic growth needs to fully develop, integrate and utilize existing population resources, and select industrial policies that are conducive to industrial upgrading and successful labour market transformation. By upgrading the existing human capital and other lay the foundation for the healthy development of the national economy.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院;
【基金】：北京高等学校青年英才计划项目(YETP0195)
【分类号】：F124;F249.2

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