我国房地产价格及影响因素的综合评估

发布时间：2018-11-18 16:30

【摘要】：衣、食、住、行是人类生存发展的必要物质基础,随着21世纪的到来,中国经济蓬勃发展,各项指数欣欣向荣。现今的中国基本解决了温饱问题,人们更多的把目光聚集到了住房问题上。目前,房地产行业已成为我国国民经济发展的支柱产业之一,房地产业能否健康稳定的发展,既关系到国民生产指数的稳步提高,同时也关系到人民的幸福生活指数的上升,所以分析影响房地产产业发展的因素主次,为市场准确定位房价就显得至关重要。在我国伴随着改革开放经济的飞速发展,房地产市场也随之迅猛发展,房价的上涨与下跌涉及到如此多群体的利益,以至于越来越多的人从不同的角度对房地产行业的发展及价格走势进行分析。研究房地产产业的影响因素有利于中国房地产市场持续、稳定、健康的发展。因此研究房价的走势和影响房地产产业发展的影响因素具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文第一章前言,介绍了本文的写作背景,国内外文献综述,目的以及意义,研究方法和结构安排。第二章,理论基础,介绍了房地产价格的定义,房地产价格的构成要素,以及影响房地产产业的影响因素。第三章,时间序列ARIMA模型的介绍。第四章,因子分析的介绍。第五章是文章的主要部分,即基于我国房地产发展现状,对我国房地产价格数据以及对影响房地产产业发展的诸多因子进行了实际分析,先以时间序列分析方法,对2010年1月至2013年12月的我国房地产价格进行分析,利用了Eviews软件作出拟合模型并进行趋势分析,然后再对2013年全国14个城市的房地产产业影响因素通过运用SPSS软件作因子分析。最后通过对房价趋势发展以及影响房地产产业发展的影响因素的分析研究,为房地产产业的健康发展以及市场经济的宏观调控给予一些个人建议。
[Abstract]:Clothing, food, shelter and transportation are the essential material basis for human survival and development. With the arrival of the 21st century, China's economy is booming and various indices are flourishing. Today's China has basically solved the problem of food and clothing, people focus more attention on the housing problem. At present, the real estate industry has become one of the pillar industries in the development of our national economy. Whether the real estate industry can develop healthily and stably not only relates to the steady improvement of the national production index, but also to the rise of the people's happy life index. Therefore, it is very important to analyze the factors that affect the development of real estate industry. With the rapid development of China's reform and opening up economy, the real estate market has also developed rapidly. The rise and fall of house prices involve the interests of so many groups. More and more people analyze the development and price trend of real estate industry from different angles. Studying the influencing factors of real estate industry is beneficial to the sustained, stable and healthy development of Chinese real estate market. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the trend of house prices and the factors affecting the development of real estate industry. The first chapter introduces the writing background, domestic and foreign literature review, purpose and significance, research methods and structural arrangements. The second chapter, the theoretical basis, introduces the definition of real estate price, the elements of real estate price, as well as the influence factors of real estate industry. Chapter 3 introduces the time series ARIMA model. Chapter four, introduction of factor analysis. The fifth chapter is the main part of the article, that is, based on the current situation of real estate development in China, the real estate price data and a number of factors affecting the development of real estate industry are analyzed. First, the method of time series analysis is used. This paper analyzes the real estate price of our country from January 2010 to December 2013, and makes use of the Eviews software to make the fitting model and the trend analysis. Then the factors affecting the real estate industry in 14 cities in China in 2013 were analyzed by using SPSS software. Finally, through the analysis and research on the trend of house price and the factors influencing the development of real estate industry, some personal suggestions are given for the healthy development of real estate industry and the macro-control of market economy.
【学位授予单位】：云南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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