基于Markov-C 5.0的CA城市用地布局模拟预测方法

发布时间：2019-03-02 17:50

【摘要】：研究目的:针对多用地类别的城市用地模拟预测提出一种科学合理的预测模型,为土地利用总体规划编制和土地利用结构优化调整提供依据和技术方法。研究方法:在分析了城市用地模拟预测中常用方法的优缺点和适用环境后,提出了一种综合采用Markov模型和C 5.0分类算法的城市用地布局模拟预测CA模型,该模型的思想是采用Markov方法获取各类土地之间的流向,结合各类土地规模的预测结果确定用地增长量,采用C 5.0分类算法获取各类土地之间的转换规则,最后以武汉市为例对该方法进行了论证。研究结果:通过该方法模拟的武汉市2012年各类土地的规模和分布总模拟精度达到91.2%,与实际情况高度一致,说明该方法能够很好的模拟武汉市的土地利用规模和布局。研究结论:该方法可以直观的了解各空间因子与转换规则的关系,并能够很好的对城市的未来情况进行模拟预测,还能够了解城市内部各类用地间的作用机理。
[Abstract]:The purpose of this study is to propose a scientific and reasonable forecasting model for urban land use simulation and prediction of multi-land use categories, which provides the basis and technical method for the overall planning of land use and the optimization and adjustment of land use structure. Research methods: after analyzing the advantages, disadvantages and applicable environment of the commonly used methods in urban land use simulation and forecasting, a CA model for urban land use layout simulation and prediction is put forward, which is based on Markov model and C 5.0 classification algorithm. The idea of this model is to use the Markov method to obtain the flow direction of all kinds of land, to determine the increase of land use by combining the prediction results of various land sizes, and to obtain the conversion rules between all kinds of land by using the C 5.0 classification algorithm. Finally, taking Wuhan as an example, the method is demonstrated. The results show that the total simulation accuracy of the scale and distribution of all kinds of land in Wuhan in 2012 is 91.2%, which is highly consistent with the actual situation, which shows that this method can simulate the scale and distribution of land use in Wuhan. Conclusion: this method can directly understand the relationship between the spatial factors and the transformation rules, and can simulate and predict the future situation of the city, and can also understand the mechanism of the action of various types of land use in the city.
【作者单位】：华中科技大学公共管理学院;武汉市国土资源和规划信息中心;
【基金】：国家“十二五”科技支撑计划(2013BAJ05B02)
【分类号】：F293.2;F224

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