基于全球气候政策博弈的中国碳减排战略研究
发布时间：2019-03-20 14:01
【摘要】：以气候变暖为主要标志的气候变化已经成为对人类生存具有十分威胁的全球问题。在人类文明步入工业化以来，经济社会快速发展，化石能源燃烧产生的二氧化碳等温室气体超出了自然所能负荷的范畴，人类文明的可持续发展受到严重的威胁。自巴西里约热内卢的联合国环境与发展大会以来，国际社会围绕气候问题历经了多次谈判，展开了激烈博弈。由于近年来中国经济总量与碳排放量不断增长居于世界前端，国际上要求中国承担减排责任的呼声越发强烈。气候问题已经超出了单纯的科学范畴而成为一个全球性的政治问题，中国应谨慎面对气候问题可能带来的政治和经济等方面的冲击。 本文主要从四大方面研究在国际气候政策博弈下中国应采取的碳减排战略。一是对全球气候政策博弈的发展历史进行研究，从而把握气候博弈中的利益集团与气候博弈发展趋势；二是通过运用IPCC第四次评估报告中的碳排放估算方法估算近年中国碳排放数据，并基于KAYA恒等式通过LMDI因素分解模型对近年中国相关数据进行测算，以衡量影响中国碳排放的因素以及各个因素的贡献度，根据模型结果以及相关数据，对中国能源结构、碳排放总量、人均碳排放等指标与主要发达国家进行对比，分析中国的碳排放现状以及碳减排潜力；三是在比较研究各国碳减排政策的基础上，对中国的现有碳减排措施进行分析对比，以参考借鉴世界各国碳减排政策方法的成功经验；四是根据中国的碳排放现状以及碳减排政策，运用博弈模型分析影响中国气候博弈的各个方面以及中国在全球气候政策博弈中应采取的战略。 基于以上研究结果，本文提出中国在新一轮全球气候政策博弈中的基本战略。气候问题关系整个人类文明的可持续发展，中国在气候问题上应维持一贯树立的大国形象，以积极的姿态参与到全球气候博弈中。中国虽然碳排放总量较大，但是人均碳排放水平刚达到国际平均水平、远低于主要发达国家，在气候博弈中应坚持“共同但有区别的责任”原则，团结发展中国家，争取发展权。同时，中国应积极寻求国际合作与区域性合作，参与国际碳交易市场，，并积极推动国内经济低碳发展路径，提高发展质量与整体竞争力，在全球气候政策博弈中争取主动地位。
[Abstract]:Climate change, marked mainly by climate change, has become a global problem that threatens the survival of human beings. Since the industrialization of human civilization, the rapid development of economy and society, the greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide produced by fossil energy combustion have exceeded the scope of natural load, and the sustainable development of human civilization has been seriously threatened. Since the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, the international community has gone through many negotiations on climate and launched a fierce game. As China's economy and carbon emissions continue to grow at the forefront of the world in recent years, international calls for China to assume responsibility for emissions reduction have become more and more intense. Climate problem has become a global political problem beyond pure science. China should be careful to deal with the political and economic impact of climate problems. This paper mainly studies China's carbon emission reduction strategy under the international climate policy game from four aspects. The first is to study the development history of global climate policy game, so as to grasp the development trend of interest group and climate game in climate game. The second is to estimate the carbon emission data of China in recent years by using the carbon emission estimation method in the fourth IPCC Assessment report, and calculate the relevant data of China in recent years by means of the LMDI factor decomposition model based on the KAYA identity. In order to measure the factors that affect China's carbon emissions and the contribution degree of each factor, the energy structure, total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions of China are compared with those of the major developed countries according to the results of the model and relevant data. The current situation and potential of carbon emission reduction in China are analyzed. Third, on the basis of comparing and studying the carbon emission reduction policies of various countries, this paper analyzes and compares the existing carbon emission reduction measures in China, in order to refer to the successful experiences of the countries in the world in carbon reduction policies and methods; Fourth, according to the current situation of China's carbon emissions and carbon emission reduction policies, the game model is used to analyze the various aspects of influencing China's climate game and the strategies that China should adopt in the global climate policy game. Based on the above results, this paper puts forward the basic strategy of China in the new round of global climate policy game. The climate problem is related to the sustainable development of the whole human civilization. China should maintain the image of a large country and participate in the global climate game with an active attitude. Although China's total carbon emissions are relatively large, its per capita carbon emissions have just reached the international average level, which is far lower than that of the major developed countries. In the climate game, we should adhere to the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities," and unite developing countries. Towards the right to development At the same time, China should actively seek international and regional cooperation, participate in the international carbon trading market, actively promote the low-carbon development path of domestic economy, improve the quality of development and overall competitiveness, and strive for an active position in the global climate policy game.
【学位授予单位】：南京林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X321;F224.32
[Abstract]:Climate change, marked mainly by climate change, has become a global problem that threatens the survival of human beings. Since the industrialization of human civilization, the rapid development of economy and society, the greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide produced by fossil energy combustion have exceeded the scope of natural load, and the sustainable development of human civilization has been seriously threatened. Since the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, the international community has gone through many negotiations on climate and launched a fierce game. As China's economy and carbon emissions continue to grow at the forefront of the world in recent years, international calls for China to assume responsibility for emissions reduction have become more and more intense. Climate problem has become a global political problem beyond pure science. China should be careful to deal with the political and economic impact of climate problems. This paper mainly studies China's carbon emission reduction strategy under the international climate policy game from four aspects. The first is to study the development history of global climate policy game, so as to grasp the development trend of interest group and climate game in climate game. The second is to estimate the carbon emission data of China in recent years by using the carbon emission estimation method in the fourth IPCC Assessment report, and calculate the relevant data of China in recent years by means of the LMDI factor decomposition model based on the KAYA identity. In order to measure the factors that affect China's carbon emissions and the contribution degree of each factor, the energy structure, total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions of China are compared with those of the major developed countries according to the results of the model and relevant data. The current situation and potential of carbon emission reduction in China are analyzed. Third, on the basis of comparing and studying the carbon emission reduction policies of various countries, this paper analyzes and compares the existing carbon emission reduction measures in China, in order to refer to the successful experiences of the countries in the world in carbon reduction policies and methods; Fourth, according to the current situation of China's carbon emissions and carbon emission reduction policies, the game model is used to analyze the various aspects of influencing China's climate game and the strategies that China should adopt in the global climate policy game. Based on the above results, this paper puts forward the basic strategy of China in the new round of global climate policy game. The climate problem is related to the sustainable development of the whole human civilization. China should maintain the image of a large country and participate in the global climate game with an active attitude. Although China's total carbon emissions are relatively large, its per capita carbon emissions have just reached the international average level, which is far lower than that of the major developed countries. In the climate game, we should adhere to the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities," and unite developing countries. Towards the right to development At the same time, China should actively seek international and regional cooperation, participate in the international carbon trading market, actively promote the low-carbon development path of domestic economy, improve the quality of development and overall competitiveness, and strive for an active position in the global climate policy game.
【学位授予单位】：南京林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X321;F224.32
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