利益攸关方个体视角下公私合作基础设施项目风险分担研究

发布时间：2019-03-31 13:08

【摘要】：随着我国现代化进程的推进，基础设施项目的建设必将成为关乎国计民生的基础工程。基础设施项目建设具有投资大、规模大、周期长等特点，单靠政府的财政支持不能完全负担，需要私人投资方的资金支持，在此现实背景下，一种新型的项目合作方式—公私合作模式应运而生。通过公私合作(PPP)模式，合作方共担项目风险，可以达到比预期单独行动更为有利的结果。本论文将研究视角置于利益攸关方个体视角下，针对公私合作基础设施项目的风险分担进行研究，构建以“风险分担理论→风险识别→风险初次分担→共担风险分担比例→实证分析”为主要内容的风险分担机制，以期达到PPP项目各利益攸关方之间在风险分担的权力、责任以及利益上的相互制衡，实现公私合作基础设施项目的多方共赢。首先，本论文介绍了公私合作基础设施项目风险分担理论，包括公私合作模式、利益攸关方等概念的界定，PPP模式的特点、影响PPP基础设施项目风险分担的因素及其风险分担的特点等公私合作基础设施项目风险分担理念。然后，基于里程碑计划对公私合作基础设施项目进行阶段划分，运用德尔菲法确定了初步的36个风险指标，再结合主成分分析法去掉19个“次要的”指标，构建出本文的公私合作基础设施项目风险指标体系。其次，运用灰色关联法的基本思想，建立基于灰色关联度分析法的风险分担模型，将风险分为利益攸关方独自承担的风险和共同承担的风险。对于独自承担的风险，根据计算的风险指标与利益攸关方之间关联度的大小来确定各利益攸关方应该承担的风险因素；在此过程中运用粗糙集确定指标权重，使得风险指标更具适用性。再次，针对共同承担的风险部分，在充分考虑各利益攸关方的风险偏好以及合作关系的基础上，采用随机合作博弈的方法，，确定共担风险的分担比例，从而实现项目的整体风险最小化。最后，以中国中铁隧道集团为例，实证分析青岛胶州湾隧道项目的公私合作风险分担情况。选取该项目的五大利益攸关方，运用灰色关联分析法对各利益攸关方单独承担的风险以及共担的风险进行风险分担，然后以合同条款遗漏风险为例，计算中国中铁隧道集团和青岛国信集团所应承担的风险比例，以此来充实和验证利益攸关方个体视角下公私合作基础设施项目风险分担的理论。本论文通过构建公私合作基础设施项目风险指标体系、建立灰色关联度分析方法的风险分担模型、构建基于随机合作博弈的公私合作基础设施项目共担风险分担的比例模型，探索了一套比较完善的利益攸关方个体视角下公私合作基础设施项目风险分担机制，使得各利益攸关方对其应分担的风险针对性更强，为风险控制奠定了良好的基础。
[Abstract]:With the advancement of China's modernization, the construction of infrastructure projects will become the basic projects related to the national economy and people's livelihood. The construction of infrastructure projects has the characteristics of large investment, large scale and long cycle, which cannot be fully borne by the government's financial support alone, and requires the financial support of private investors. Under this realistic background, A new mode of project cooperation-public-private cooperation model emerges as the times require. Through the (PPP) model of public-private partnership, partners can share the project risk and achieve more favorable results than expected by individual action. This paper focuses on the risk-sharing of public-private partnership infrastructure projects from the perspective of individual stakeholders. To construct a risk sharing mechanism based on "risk sharing theory and risk identification" as the main content, in order to achieve the power of risk sharing among stakeholders of PPP project, which is based on the empirical analysis of risk sharing ratio of initial risk sharing and risk sharing ratio of risk sharing in order to achieve the power of risk sharing among various stakeholders of the risk sharing project. Mutual checks and balances of responsibility and interests to achieve multi-win-win public-private partnership in infrastructure projects. Firstly, this paper introduces the theory of public-private partnership infrastructure project risk sharing, including the definition of public-private partnership model, stakeholders and other concepts, and the characteristics of the PPP model. The risk sharing concept of public-private cooperation infrastructure projects such as the factors that affect the risk sharing of PPP infrastructure projects and the characteristics of risk sharing. Then, based on the milestone plan, the public-private partnership infrastructure projects are divided into phases, the Delphi method is used to determine the initial 36 risk indicators, and then the principal component analysis method is used to remove 19 "secondary" indicators. This paper constructs the public-private partnership infrastructure project risk index system. Secondly, the risk sharing model based on grey correlation analysis is established by using the basic idea of grey correlation analysis, and the risk is divided into the risk that the stakeholders bear alone and the risk shared by the stakeholders. For risk borne alone, the risk factors to be borne by stakeholders are determined based on the degree of correlation between the calculated risk indicators and stakeholders; In this process, rough set is used to determine the index weight, which makes the risk index more applicable. Thirdly, on the basis of taking full account of the risk preferences and cooperative relationships of various stakeholders, we adopt the random cooperative game method to determine the proportion of shared risks for the shared risk part. Thus the overall risk of the project is minimized. Finally, taking China Railway Tunnel Group as an example, this paper empirically analyzes the risk sharing of public-private cooperation in Qingdao Jiaozhou Bay Tunnel Project. Selecting the five major stakeholders of the project, using grey relational analysis to share the risks borne by the various stakeholders alone and the shared risks, and then taking the omission of the contract terms as an example, The risk ratio of China Railway Tunnel Group and Qingdao Guoxin Group is calculated to enrich and verify the theory of risk sharing of public-private cooperative infrastructure projects from the perspective of individual stakeholders. This paper constructs the risk index system of public-private cooperation infrastructure project, establishes the risk sharing model of grey correlation analysis method, and constructs the proportional model of public-private cooperation infrastructure project sharing risk sharing based on random cooperative game. This paper explores a set of perfect risk sharing mechanism of public-private cooperative infrastructure projects from the perspective of individual stakeholders, which makes the risk sharing mechanism of public-private cooperation infrastructure projects more targeted and lays a good foundation for risk control.
【学位授予单位】：青岛理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F283

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