美国量化宽松货币政策对中国货币流动性影响的实证分析

发布时间：2019-05-27 16:12

【摘要】：在信息化高度发达的今天，世界已经成为一个有机的整体。虽然在宗教信仰与政治倾向上国家与国家存在明显界限，但在经济领域这种界限已经不是十分明显。在经济全球化的背景下，单个国家爆发的经济危机或制定经济政策将可能带来世界范围内的影响。例如2007年美国发生了严重的次贷危机，短时间内就形成了波及全球的金融危机。为了解除危机、恢复经济，美国、日本、欧盟相继启动了非常规的量化宽松货币政策。美国量化宽松货币政策已经实施了5年，先后进行了4轮。美国在长期维持低利率甚至零利率的同时，通过购买机构债券，长期国债等向市场投入大量的货币流动性用以鼓励投资、降低失业率。时至今日，量化宽松货币政策仍褒贬不一。新任美联储主席耶伦最近也暗示美国将在今年年底退出量化宽松货币政策，但低利率仍将持续一段时间。在这样的背景下，笔者关注美国的量化宽松如何对我国的货币流动性产生影响。货币流动性关系到我们经济发展的整体结构。套利行为与资本流动将会造成产业结构失调、经济泡沫产生，因此笔者认为探讨美国的量化宽松与中国的货币流动性之间的关系是有意义的。本文先以中国广义货币M2代替中国的货币流动性，定性说明美国量化宽松对中国的货币流动性有影响。进一步选取中国广义货币量M2、中美汇率、中国进出口额等为中国货币流动性的代理变量，建立向量自回归模型，进行格兰杰因果检验、协整检验，辅助脉冲响应函数进行经济计量分析，结论显示美国量化宽松对中国货币流动性的影响是显著的。最后笔者提出几点建议，做好金融监管工作，密切注意跨区套利行为，防止国际游资、热钱短期迅速撤离，造成货币流动性紧张；深化中国汇率改革，加快人民币汇率市场化，推进人民币国际化；调整金融机构的投资结构、渠道，打压“影子银行”等虚拟经济，，加大力度扶持实体经济，切实做好经济工作的全面深化改革。
[Abstract]:In today's highly developed information technology, the world has become an organic whole. Although there is an obvious boundary between the state and the state in terms of religious belief and political tendency, it is no longer very obvious in the economic field. In the context of economic globalization, the economic crisis or the formulation of economic policies in a single country may have a worldwide impact. For example, in 2007, there was a serious subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, and the global financial crisis was formed in a short period of time. In order to relieve the crisis and restore the economy, the United States, Japan and the European Union have launched unconventional quantitative easing monetary policy one after another. Quantitative easing in the United States has been implemented for five years, followed by four rounds. While the United States maintains low or even zero interest rates for a long time, it invests a lot of monetary liquidity into the market by buying institutional bonds and long-term Treasuries to encourage investment and reduce unemployment. To this day, quantitative easing monetary policy is still mixed. Yellen, the new Fed chairman, recently hinted that the United States would withdraw from quantitative easing by the end of the year, but low interest rates would continue for some time. In this context, the author pays attention to how quantitative easing in the United States has an impact on the monetary liquidity of our country. Monetary liquidity is related to the overall structure of our economic development. Arbitrage behavior and capital flow will lead to the imbalance of industrial structure and the emergence of economic bubble. Therefore, the author believes that it is meaningful to explore the relationship between quantitative easing in the United States and monetary liquidity in China. In this paper, Chinese broad money M2 is used to replace China's monetary liquidity, which qualitatively shows that quantitative easing in the United States has an impact on China's monetary liquidity. Furthermore, the generalized Chinese currency M2, Sino-US exchange rate and Chinese import and export volume are selected as the proxy variables of Chinese monetary liquidity, and the vector autoregression model is established, and the Granger causality test and cointegration test are carried out. The econometric analysis of auxiliary impulse response function shows that quantitative easing in the United States has a significant effect on monetary liquidity in China. Finally, the author puts forward some suggestions, do a good job of financial supervision, pay close attention to cross-regional arbitrage behavior, prevent international hot money, short-term and rapid withdrawal, resulting in tight monetary liquidity; Deepen the reform of China's exchange rate, speed up the marketization of RMB exchange rate, and promote the internationalization of RMB; We will adjust the investment structure and channels of financial institutions, crack down on virtual economies such as "shadow banking", step up efforts to support the real economy, and earnestly deepen the reform of economic work in an all-round way.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F827.12;F822.2

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