基于生态足迹模型的福建省可持续发展研究

发布时间：2019-06-19 04:05

【摘要】：可持续发展是人类生存和发展永恒的主题，是历史的必然选择。如何定量测度区域可持续发展程度是实现生态经济系统协调发展的关键环节。2002年，国家环保局正式批准福建省为生态建设试点省份。2014年3月，国务院确定福建省为全国第一个生态文明先行示范区。福建省在经济迅猛发展的同时，由于工业化、城市化的加快和人口的增加，使得社会、经济和资源环境之间的矛盾日渐深化。因此，正确认识福建省的可持续发展状况，不仅对福建生态省的建设具有指导作用，对整个海峡西岸经济区可持续发展的研究也具有重大意义。本文运用近年来较为流行的生态足迹模型来研究福建省的可持续发展状况，其主要从经济需求和生态供给两方面的供需平衡状况来综合测度区域可持续发展程度。首先，分别从静态研究和动态研究两方面对福建省的生态足迹和生态承载力进行测算，并结合相关指标进行评估与分析，结果表明：目前福建省人类社会的消费需求已经超过了其生态系统供给能力，在省域上处于不可持续状态。生态压力指数由2000年的稍不安全级别（3级）上升到2012年的较不安全级别（4级），这说明福建省所面临的生态压力在不断增大。其次，运用灰色预测GM(1，1)模型对福建省未来的可持续发展趋势进行预测，得到福建省2020年的人均生态足迹将增至3.4862hm2，，人均生态承载力将降为0.4600hm2，生态赤字将高达3.0262hm2，生态压力指数将上升到1.35。这些数据意味着，如果以现有的经济增长模式发展下去的话，福建省未来的可持续发展状况不容乐观，生态经济系统将面临严峻的考验。最后，根据现状分析和预测结果，结合福建省经济社会发展的实际情况，提出如何降低生态足迹，减少赤字，以促进福建省可持续发展的政策建议，主要包括：控制人口规模，提高人口素质；加大科技投入，提高土地利用效率；转变经济增长方式，优化产业结构；建立生态足迹评估预警和补偿机制等。
[Abstract]:Sustainable development is the eternal theme of human survival and development, and it is the inevitable choice of history. How to quantitatively measure the degree of regional sustainable development is the key link to realize the coordinated development of ecological and economic system. In 2002, the State Environmental Protection Bureau officially approved Fujian Province as the pilot province of ecological construction. In March 2014, the State Council designated Fujian Province as the first ecological civilization demonstration area in China. With the rapid development of economy in Fujian Province, due to the acceleration of industrialization, urbanization and population, the contradiction between society, economy and resources and environment is deepening day by day. Therefore, a correct understanding of the sustainable development of Fujian Province not only plays a guiding role in the construction of Fujian ecological province, but also has great significance in the study of the sustainable development of the economic zone on the west coast of the Taiwan Strait. In this paper, the ecological footprint model, which is popular in recent years, is used to study the sustainable development of Fujian Province, which mainly measures the degree of regional sustainable development from two aspects of economic demand and ecological supply. First of all, the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of Fujian Province are calculated from two aspects of static research and dynamic research, and the results show that the consumption demand of human society in Fujian Province has exceeded its ecosystem supply capacity and is in an unsustainable state in the province. The ecological pressure index increased from a slightly unsafe level in 2000 (grade 3) to a less unsafe level in 2012 (level 4), which indicates that the ecological pressure faced by Fujian Province is increasing. Secondly, the grey prediction GM (1, 1) model is used to predict the sustainable development trend of Fujian Province in the future. it is concluded that the per capita ecological footprint of Fujian Province will increase to 3.4862hm2 in 2020, the per capita ecological carrying capacity will be reduced to 0.4600hm2, the ecological deficit will be as high as 3.0262hm2, and the ecological pressure index will rise to 1.35. These data mean that if the existing economic growth model continues to develop, the future sustainable development of Fujian Province is not optimistic, and the ecological economic system will face a severe test. Finally, according to the present situation analysis and prediction results, combined with the actual situation of economic and social development in Fujian Province, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to reduce the ecological footprint and reduce the deficit in order to promote the sustainable development of Fujian Province, including: controlling the population size, improving the quality of the population, increasing investment in science and technology, improving land use efficiency, changing the mode of economic growth and optimizing the industrial structure; Establish early warning and compensation mechanism for ecological footprint assessment.
【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X22

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