赣南脐橙的农业保险费率测算与政策研究
发布时间：2019-07-01 12:37
【摘要】：农业保险作为一种有效的风险转移和社会管理机制，是市场经济国家扶持农业发展的通行做法。目前，，国内外农业保险模式主要有政府主导模式、政府支持下相互会社模式、民办公助模式和国家重点选择性扶持模式等四种。本文对赣南脐橙发展农业保险费率的厘定主要表现在风险损失的数量统计与数学形式表达。 作为赣州优势发展产业之一的赣南脐橙，其发展过程存在市场风险、社会风险、自然风险，并且风险抵御过程中仍存在一定问题。《若干意见》的正式出台给赣南脐橙发展迎来新的挑战与机遇，赣南地区开始了脐橙保险的研究。 本文以赣南脐橙农业保险为研究对象，基于赣南脐橙发展中的历史单产数据，采用直线滑动平均法构建单产随机波动百分比；再通过直接正态概率分布法和偏态分布正态化的概率分布，分别得出其单产风险损失概率密度函数；最后通过单产风险损失概率密度函数进行赣南脐橙的农业保险费率厘定。将两种模型估算的费率同赣南脐橙现行试点费率进行分析比较，表明赣南脐橙农业保险费率的厘定同本文确定的模型之一存在很好的契合关系，说明了用偏态分布正态化的概率分布模型进行赣南脐橙费率厘定的方法是可行的。
[Abstract]:As an effective risk transfer and social management mechanism, agricultural insurance is a way to support the development of agriculture in the market economy. At present, the domestic and foreign agricultural insurance model mainly has the government-led mode, and the government supports the following four modes, such as the mutual development mode, the people's office support mode and the national key selective support mode. In this paper, the determination of the rate of the development of the agricultural insurance rate in the navel orange of the southern Jiangxi is mainly shown in the number of risk losses and the expression in the form of mathematics. As one of the dominant developing industry of Ganzhou, the navel orange of the south of Jiangxi, its development process has the market risk, the social risk, the natural risk, and the risk protection process still has a certain question The paper discusses the new challenges and opportunities for the development of the navel orange in the southern part of the Gannan area, and the research of the navel orange insurance in the southern part of the Gannan area. In this paper, based on the historical single-production data in the development of the navel orange in the southern Jiangxi, the single-production random fluctuation percentage is constructed by the linear sliding average method based on the historical single-production data in the development of the navel orange in the southern Jiangxi. The probability density function of the single production risk is derived from the distribution of rate, and the agricultural insurance premium of the navel orange of the southern Jiangxi province is finally made through the probability density function of the single production risk. The rate is determined. The rates of the two models are compared with the current pilot rate of the navel orange in the southern Jiangxi province. It is shown that the determination of the agricultural insurance rate of the navel orange in the southern Jiangxi is a good deed with one of the models determined in this paper. In this paper, the method for determining the rate of the navel orange in the south of the Gannan by using the probability distribution model of the partial-state distribution is described.
【学位授予单位】：南昌大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842.66;F224
本文编号：2508476
[Abstract]:As an effective risk transfer and social management mechanism, agricultural insurance is a way to support the development of agriculture in the market economy. At present, the domestic and foreign agricultural insurance model mainly has the government-led mode, and the government supports the following four modes, such as the mutual development mode, the people's office support mode and the national key selective support mode. In this paper, the determination of the rate of the development of the agricultural insurance rate in the navel orange of the southern Jiangxi is mainly shown in the number of risk losses and the expression in the form of mathematics. As one of the dominant developing industry of Ganzhou, the navel orange of the south of Jiangxi, its development process has the market risk, the social risk, the natural risk, and the risk protection process still has a certain question The paper discusses the new challenges and opportunities for the development of the navel orange in the southern part of the Gannan area, and the research of the navel orange insurance in the southern part of the Gannan area. In this paper, based on the historical single-production data in the development of the navel orange in the southern Jiangxi, the single-production random fluctuation percentage is constructed by the linear sliding average method based on the historical single-production data in the development of the navel orange in the southern Jiangxi. The probability density function of the single production risk is derived from the distribution of rate, and the agricultural insurance premium of the navel orange of the southern Jiangxi province is finally made through the probability density function of the single production risk. The rate is determined. The rates of the two models are compared with the current pilot rate of the navel orange in the southern Jiangxi province. It is shown that the determination of the agricultural insurance rate of the navel orange in the southern Jiangxi is a good deed with one of the models determined in this paper. In this paper, the method for determining the rate of the navel orange in the south of the Gannan by using the probability distribution model of the partial-state distribution is described.
【学位授予单位】：南昌大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842.66;F224
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