基于耕地压力指数的河南省耕地保护与城市化发展研究

发布时间：2019-07-08 21:11

【摘要】：河南省是我国农业和粮食生产大省，在全国粮食生产方面占有举足轻重的地位。随着中原经济区建设上升为国家战略规划，既要保证“吃饭”又要保证“建设”的两难局面在河南省表现尤为突出。因此结合当前的经济社会发展环境，开展城市化发展与耕地保护相关研究，对于实现城市化与耕地保护科学合理发展意义重大。本论文在对2000－2008年耕地压力指数相关要素进行分析的基础上，测算了河南省和18个地市的耕地压力指数，并从时间序列和空间尺度对耕地压力进行深入分析；定性选取引起耕地压力指数变化的驱动因素，利用主成分分析方法提取了主要驱动因素；对城市化率与耕地面积、耕地压力指数进行相关分析，分别从时间序列上和空间尺度上分析城市化发展与耕地压力指数的关系；在此基础上提出河南省城市化进程中保护耕地的建议。得到如下结论：（1）河南省耕地压力指数总体呈下降趋势但空间分布不平衡。在粮食自给率为130%的水平上，河南省耕地压力指数由2000年的1.0232增大到2003年的1.2754，后逐年减少至2008年0.9173。根据各地市耕地压力指数值分布特征，全省共划分为三个区域：1）耕地压力明显区，主要位于河南中西部，包括郑州市、三门峡市、济源市和平顶山市，其耕地压力指数值都高于1，分别为1.4392、1.3336、1.0656、1.0240；2）耕地压力预警区，主要位于河南中部和西南部，有洛阳市、开封市和南阳市，，其耕地压力指数值在0.7以上；3）耕地压力不明显区，主要位于河南东部，有焦作市、周口市、新乡市、濮阳市、信阳市、商丘市、鹤壁市和驻马店市，其耕地压力指数值在0.7以下，耕地无明显压力。（2）影响河南省耕地压力指数变化的主要驱动因素归纳起来可以分为经济发展、城市化发展、人口增长和农业科技进步四个主要因素。（3）耕地保护与城市化发展呈现一种对立统一的关系。2000－2008年间，河南省耕地面积和城市化水平呈显著负相关关系，城市化水平每提高1个百分点，耕地面积减少1.23万公顷。耕地压力指数与城市化水平无显著相关，且18个地市城市化发展与耕地压力指数变化规律存在很大差异，具体可分为三类：1）以郑州市、三门峡市、济源市和洛阳市为代表的城市化率与耕地压力指数同向变化；2）以平顶山市、鹤壁市和周口市为代表的城市化率与耕地压力指数反向变化；3）以鹤壁市和济源市为代表的城市化发展水平相同的地市之间耕地压力指数相差很大。
文内图片：

图片说明：耕地资源利用与保护的调控机制框图
[Abstract]:Henan Province is a major province of agriculture and grain production in China, which plays an important role in national grain production. With the construction of the Central Plains Economic Zone rising to the national strategic planning, the dilemma of ensuring both "eating" and "construction" is particularly prominent in Henan Province. Therefore, combined with the current economic and social development environment, it is of great significance to carry out the research on urbanization development and cultivated land protection in order to realize the scientific and reasonable development of urbanization and cultivated land protection. Based on the analysis of the related factors of cultivated land pressure index from 2000 to 2008, this paper calculates the cultivated land pressure index of Henan Province and 18 prefectures and cities, and analyzes the cultivated land pressure from time series and spatial scale, qualitatively selects the driving factors that cause the change of cultivated land pressure index, and uses the principal component analysis method to extract the main driving factors. This paper analyzes the correlation between urbanization rate and cultivated land area and cultivated land pressure index, analyzes the relationship between urbanization development and cultivated land pressure index from time series and spatial scale, and puts forward some suggestions for protecting cultivated land in the process of urbanization in Henan Province. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the cultivated land pressure index of Henan Province generally shows a downward trend, but the spatial distribution is not balanced. At the level of 130% grain self-sufficient rate, the cultivated land pressure index in Henan Province increased from 1.0232 in 2000 to 1.2754 in 2003, and then decreased to 0.9173 in 2008. According to the distribution characteristics of cultivated land pressure index, the province is divided into three areas: 1) the cultivated land pressure area is mainly located in the central and western Henan, including Zhengzhou City, Sanmenxia City, Jiyuan City and Pingdingshan City, the cultivated land pressure index value is higher than 1, 1.3336, 1.0656, 1.0240; 2) cultivated land pressure warning area, mainly located in central and southwest Henan, Luoyang City, Kaifeng City and Nanyang City, its cultivated land pressure index is above 0.7; 3) cultivated land pressure is not obvious, mainly located in eastern Henan, Jiaozuo City, Zhoukou City, Xinxiang City, Puyang City, Xinyang City, Shangqiu City, Hebi City and Zhumadian City, where the cultivated land pressure index is below 0.7, and there is no obvious pressure on cultivated land. (2) the main driving factors affecting the change of cultivated land pressure index in Henan Province can be divided into four main factors: economic development, urbanization development, population growth and agricultural science and technology progress. (3) there is a unity of opposites between cultivated land protection and urbanization development. During 2000 / 2008, there was a significant negative correlation between cultivated land area and urbanization level in Henan Province. for every 1 percentage point increase in urbanization level, cultivated land area decreased by 12300 hectares. There is no significant correlation between cultivated land pressure index and urbanization level, and there are great differences between urbanization development and cultivated land pressure index in 18 cities, which can be divided into three categories: 1) urbanization rate and cultivated land pressure index, represented by Zhengzhou, Sanmenxia, Jiyuan and Luoyang, 2) reverse change of urbanization rate and cultivated land pressure index represented by Pingdingshan City, Hebi City and Zhoukou City; 3) there is a great difference in cultivated land pressure index between Hebi city and Jiyuan city with the same urbanization development level.
【学位授予单位】：河南农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F323.211;F299.27

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