中国股票市场与宏观经济运行关系的实证分析

发布时间：2018-01-01 21:04

本文关键词：中国股票市场与宏观经济运行关系的实证分析　出处：《中国科学院大学(中国科学院武汉物理与数学研究所)》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国股票市场在经过二十多年的发展后已然成为现代金融的核心,占据着国民经济中越来越重要的位置。但不可否认的是,我国的股市依旧尚未成熟,在制度建设、运行机制等方面均存在不可忽视的缺陷。而股票市场和宏观经济运行之间的关系,一直以来都是经济学家们所热衷的课题,在诸如美国、英国等具有成熟完善的资本市场体系的国家里,这二者的关系尚未有统一定论,在我国就更是莫衷一是了。因此,针对我国的股票市场和宏观经济运行之间的关系进行深入研究和分析,不仅有利于认清二者之间的关系和相互影响机制,更可为我国未来的经济发展和股市改革提供科学有效的理论依据。本文主要分为三大部分:第一部分简要介绍了本文的研究背景和意义、研究目的、研究思路和方法,并把国内外针对该问题的相关研究成果作了简要的介绍。第二部分选取了 1997年-2016年股市发展和宏观经济运行指标的季度数据,在常规性的VAR建模之前,先运用因子分析方法对宏观经济运行指标进行降维处理,然后再结合股票市场指标进行实证分析。第三部分针对第二部分实证分析得到的结果进行分析研究,结合相应经济学理论对现象作出合理解释,并对未来股市和宏观经济的发展给出相应的建议。
[Abstract]:After more than 20 years' development, China's stock market has become the core of modern finance, occupying a more and more important position in the national economy. However, it is undeniable that China's stock market is still immature. However, the relationship between stock market and macroeconomic operation has always been a hot topic for economists, such as the United States. Britain and other countries with mature and perfect capital market system, the relationship between the two has not yet a unified conclusion, in our country is more divided. To study and analyze the relationship between stock market and macroeconomic operation in China is not only helpful to understand the relationship between them and the mechanism of mutual influence. This paper is divided into three parts: the first part briefly introduces the research background and significance of this paper, and the purpose of the research. Research ideas and methods. The second part selects the quarterly data of stock market development and macroeconomic operation indicators from 1997 to 2016. Before the conventional VAR modeling, factor analysis method is used to reduce the dimension of macroeconomic indicators. Then combined with the stock market indicators for empirical analysis. The third part of the empirical analysis of the results of the second part of the analysis, combined with the corresponding economic theory to make a reasonable explanation of the phenomenon. And gives the corresponding suggestion to the future stock market and the macroeconomic development.
【学位授予单位】：中国科学院大学(中国科学院武汉物理与数学研究所)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F124;F832.51

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