中国私募股权投资估值不确定性问题的研究

发布时间：2018-01-06 02:19

本文关键词：中国私募股权投资估值不确定性问题的研究　出处：《厦门大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文针对私募股权投资过程估值不确定问题展开研究。考虑到私募股权投资不愿披露信息的特性,笔者在研究方法上引入控制论分析黑箱时所用黑箱理论的原理,将私募股权估值作为一个估值黑箱来研究估值不确定性问题。在分析了私募股权投资整个投资循环的基础上,全文基于创业板上市公司历史数据,运用因素分析法、统计分析法、例证法等方法,围绕投资前与退出前两个环节对估值不确定性机理展开一系列研究。研究得出：1、投资前的估值不确定性是因现有的估值方案中没把博弈双方完整纳入估值对象,PE的缺失导致估值黑箱不完整、不稳定引起的。事实上,PE的无形资产对获得投资后的目标企业这个估值黑箱的成长影响很大,这是前人研究中没注意到的一个基础性问题,其根源来自中西方的文化差异。正是PE无形资产的投入改变了估值黑箱的成长轨迹,使之表现出不同的估值特性。2、退出前的估值不确定性与退出市场的不确定息息相关,由于目前不同退出方式收益悬殊太大,导致PE一旦未能实现IPO退出则对估值不确定造成巨大的影响,鉴于每种退出方式的收益与不同退出市场间的交易成本息息相关,为缩小退出前估值不确定程度,建议在不同交易成本设计下构建多层次资本市场来最终降低估值不确定性。根据研究的结果针对目前实际存在的问题提出以下建议：1、对PE而言,从创业板数据的多项指标表明过去PE在投资前估值所采用的市盈率倍数偏高,今后应该要适度调低投资前市盈率的倍数,以避免退出时一二级市场“估值倒挂”带来的风险导致的估值不确定；2、鉴于PE个体能力不同表现出的估值差异不是估值不确定性的表现,PE应该通过选择不同的目标企业来实现自己应有的价值。3、对监管层而言,可以在不同交易成本设计下构建多层次资本市场来最终降低估值不确定程度。
[Abstract]:According to the process of private equity investment valuation uncertainty research. Considering the characteristics of private equity investment to disclosure of information, the author introduces the control principle of black box theory for analysis of the black box in the research method, the valuation of private equity valuations as a black box to study the valuation uncertainty problem.
Based on the analysis of the whole investment investment cycle of private equity, the GEM listed companies based on historical data, using factor analysis method, statistical analysis method, example method, focus on investment and exit before the first two aspects to launch a series of research on the mechanism of valuation uncertainty. The results are: 1, investment valuation uncertainty is the result of the valuation of the existing scheme in the two sides of the game did not put into the valuation object, the loss of PE causes the valuation of black box is not complete, due to instability. In fact, great influence the growth of PE intangible assets of the target enterprise investment after the valuation of the black box, this is a basic problem in previous studies pay no attention to the cultural differences, with its roots in the West. It is the PE input of intangible assets has changed the growth trajectory of the black box of the valuation, showing.2 valuation characteristics, exit before. The value of uncertainty and the uncertainty of the market exit is due to the different ways to withdraw the income gap is too large, resulting in PE once failed to achieve IPO exit of valuation uncertainty caused by the huge impact, in view of each form of benefits and different exit transaction costs between markets are closely related, in order to reduce the exit before the valuation of the degree of uncertainty. In different transaction cost design under the construction of multi-level capital market to ultimately reduce the valuation uncertainty.
According to the results of the study aiming at the practical problems and put forward the following suggestions: 1, for PE, from a number of indicators of the gem data shows that in the past PE before investment valuation the price earning ratio is high, the future should be a modest reduction in multiple investment earnings, in order to avoid the risk of exit one or two market valuation the resulting upside down "valuation uncertainty; 2, the difference between the valuation of PE individual ability is not shown in different valuation uncertainty, PE should by choosing different target companies to achieve their expected value.3, as for the government, can the construction of multi-level capital market in different transaction costs to the final design reduce the valuation of the degree of uncertainty.

【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F832.51

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