利用AHP法完善城投债信用风险评估体系

发布时间：2018-01-07 04:00

本文关键词：利用AHP法完善城投债信用风险评估体系　出处：《财政部财政科学研究所》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济和社会的发展,我国地方政府的支出压力越来越大,地方政府通过税收获得的收入已经远不能覆盖其支出。同时,我国《预算法》明确规定,“除法律和国务院另有规定外,地方政府不得发行地方政府债券”。因此,地方政府只能借助地方投融资平台举债融资。所谓地方投融资平台(也称为“城投公司”),一般是由地方国资委或其他政府机构控股的从事城市基础设施建设或公益事业的公司。这些公司通常由地方政府划拨土地、股权等资产进行注资成立,法人治理不健全、盈利能力差,收入主要依靠地方政府补贴和政策优惠。城投公司靠举债融资,发行的债券称为城投债。城投债是我国债券市场上一类特殊的债券,一方面体现在发行主体的经营资质差,另一方面则体现在其背后政府的“隐性担保”。诚然,融资平台及其发行的城投债在近些年我国经济增长与社会发展中扮演了十分重要的角色。然而,正是由于它的特殊性与地方政府的不透明性,使得城投债在市场上的信用风险并未明显暴露出来,外部评级机构对城投债的评级普遍偏高。本文正是在这种背景下希望建立一套分析城投债信用风险的逻辑体系,采用AHP法建立起城投债的内部评级体系。本文采用比较分析法、案例分析法、定性与定量分析法等方法,首先对我国城投债的产生与发展进行详细的阐述,在此基础上归纳出城投债的特性,并对城投债与地方政府债券的关系进行阐释。其次,文章介绍了国内外多种债券信用风险的评估方法,并进行比较分析,得出层次分析法(简称“AHP法”)是适合中国债券市场发展的信用评估方法。然后,文章利用AHP法构建城投债内部评级体系,还将这套体系运用到具体案例中,以此证明本文介绍的方法具有可操作性。文章的最后提出了降低城投债系统性风险的政策建议：一是加强宏观调控能力,保持经济平稳运行；二是完善地方政府举债机制；三是增加城投债信用增信方式；四是提高城投债的透明度；五是将城投债券合理过渡到市政债。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy and society in China, the expenditure of local governments in China more and more big, the local government through the tax revenue has been far from being able to cover the expenses. At the same time, China's "budget law > stipulates that" subject to the provisions of the law and the state Council, the local government may not issue local government bonds. Therefore, the local government can only use local investment and financing platform of debt financing.
The so-called local financing platform (also known as the "city investment company"), usually by the local SASAC holding or other government agencies engaged in the city infrastructure construction or the public utilities companies. These companies usually by the local government allocated land, equity and other assets into capital, corporate governance is not perfect, poor profitability. The income mainly rely on local government subsidies and preferential policies. The city investment companies rely on debt financing, the issuance of bonds called the city voted debt. The city voted bonds of China's bond market and a special bond, embodied in the main issue of the business qualification, on the other hand, is reflected in the government's "behind implicit guarantee.
Indeed, the financing platform and the city to vote bonds issued to play a very important role in recent years, China's economic growth and social development. However, because of the particularity of opaque and the local government, the city voted debt credit risk in the market is not obvious, the external rating agencies for the city to vote the debt rating is generally high. This article is in this context that wants to build a city to vote bonds credit risk analysis logic system, the internal rating system to establish the city voted bonds by the AHP method.
This paper uses the method of comparative analysis, case analysis, qualitative and quantitative analysis method, firstly elaborated on the construction and development of China's city investment bonds, based on the characteristics of inductive city investment bonds, and the city voted bonds and local government bonds are explained. Secondly, this paper introduces the evaluation for a variety of domestic and international bond credit risk, and carries on the comparative analysis, AHP ("AHP") is a credit evaluation method for Chinese bond market development. Then, the construction of the city voted debt internal rating system by using the AHP method, also will use the system to the specific case, in order to prove the method this paper introduces the operability. Finally, put forward to reduce the systemic risk of the city investment bond policy suggestions: the first is to strengthen macro-control ability, keep the economy running smoothly; the two is to improve the local government borrowing machine System; three is to increase investment and debt credit credit; the four is to enhance the transparency of the city voted debt; five is the city voted bonds reasonable transition to municipal bonds.

【学位授予单位】：财政部财政科学研究所
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.5

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