“十三五”时期我国地方政府性债务风险的预测与监控

发布时间：2018-01-09 07:03

本文关键词：“十三五”时期我国地方政府性债务风险的预测与监控　出处：《当代财经》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】："十三五"时期,我国经济发展进入了新常态。在这一时期,地方政府财政收支活动将面临更大压力。从多个角度分析发现,我国地方政府性债务风险虽总体可控,但地方政府性债务对全国政府性债务贡献过大,地方债规模的上升空间几近消失,个别省份债务风险已进入预警区间。通过对"十三五"时期地方政府性偿债资金来源和偿债成本的预测,不难看出,我国地方政府性债务将有可能面临更大偿债压力,风险有可能持续升高。因此,监控地方政府性债务风险、缓解债务压力,应从两方面着手:一方面要提高债务管理水平,加快完善地方自主发债模式、推进信用评价和破产制度、健全债务风险预警机制;另一方面要化解债务存量,着力推进融资平台公司市场化转型、完善公私合作模式。
[Abstract]:During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, China's economic development has entered a new normal. In this period, local governments' fiscal revenue and expenditure activities will face greater pressure. Although the risk of local government debt in China is generally controllable, the local government debt contributes too much to the national government debt, and the increasing space of local debt scale almost disappears. The debt risk of individual provinces has entered an early warning interval. It is not difficult to see the source of local government debt repayment funds and the repayment cost of local government during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. China's local government debt will likely face greater debt repayment pressure, risk may continue to rise. Therefore, monitor local government debt risk, alleviate debt pressure. We should start from two aspects: on the one hand, we should improve the level of debt management, accelerate the improvement of the local independent bond issuance model, promote the credit evaluation and bankruptcy system, and improve the debt risk warning mechanism; On the other hand, we should resolve the stock of debt, promote the marketization transformation of financing platform companies and perfect the public-private cooperation mode.
【作者单位】：天津财经大学经济学院;江西财经大学财税与公共管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目“我国‘影子银行’风险和地方政府财政风险间的交叉传染机制及其监控政策研究”(14CJY063)
【分类号】：F812.5
【正文快照】： 一、引言及文献回顾 “十三五”时期,我国经济发展进入新常态。地方政府财政运行也进入到了收支矛盾加大、赤字持续增长的新常态。面临新形势下的挑战,地方政府的债务风险等级是否会升高?地方政府是否会面临“破产”危机?这些担忧已成为社会和学界关注的热点问题。近期国务院

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