我国的国债规模研究

发布时间：2018-01-09 09:28

本文关键词：我国的国债规模研究　出处：《安徽大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：国债是国家政府凭借其信用,为筹集资金而公开发行的到期需要还本付息的一种有价证券。我国自1981年恢复国债发行以来,随着我国市场经济的快速发展和经济体制改革的不断深入,国债的发行规模也越来越大,尤其是1998年以来,我国采取增发国债的措施来刺激经济增长,导致国债规模迅速膨胀。众所周知,国债是一把双刃剑,发行国债既可以对经济发展产生积极的影响,同时也可能起到负面的作用,国债发行规模如果过大,甚至可能导致债务危机。因此,研究国债规模是很有现实意义的。本文所讨论的国债规模是当年发行的国债总额,国债的适度规模是指国债在国民经济这一大参照系下国债的最满意或最合理的数量界限,这一界限不是一个具体的绝对值而是一个合理的区间。适度的国债规模是国家政府实行有效宏观调控、保持国民经济快速发展的内在要求。本文采用了理论与实践、实证分析与规范分析相结合的研究方法,选取了1981-2011年的数据,运用Eviews6.0对我国国债的历史发行量进行实证分析,并对此提出我国国债规模的相应政策建议。本文共分为六章,第一章引言,阐述了研究背景、研究意义以及目前国内外对国债规模问题研究的情况；第二章是通过对国债的经济效应的分析,论述了适度国债对国民经济的有效促进作用、国债规模过大对经济产生的消极作用；第三章介绍了国债规模的相关理论基础以及衡量国债的现实指标,这些都为后文的实证分析打下理论基础。第四章和第五章是本文的重点。首先运用国际通行的合理指标对我国的国债规模进行经验分析,分别考察了国民经济应债能力的负担率、赤字率、居民应债率、借债率以及国债偿债能力的国债依存度、国债偿债率,得出我国国债规模正处于国民经济应债能力相对宽松和财政本身债务负担沉重的矛盾之中,但是这并不能作为衡量国债规模是否适度的绝对标准,还应该从国债的实际使用状况和政府的自偿能力以及我国的实际国情等方面综合考虑,由于国债规模受到多重客观因素的限制,未来的一段时间内,主要应该侧重于调节经济的应债能力,同时通过建立多马模型得出我国早期由于国债规模迅速扩张存在较大风险,但是近年来国家采取相应的措施应对,危机得以缓解,然而国债发行规模扩大所产生的债务危机不容忽视。接着,再进一步分析影响我国国债规模的主要因素,在上述因素分析的基础上,采用Granger因果检验并挑选出国债发行规模的Granger原因,再对其变量建立VAR模型和进行协整关系检验,建立协整方程和短期误差修正模型(VEC模型)。由此可知,我国国债规模最重要的影响因素是GDP、财政赤字以及国债余额,并且我国国债规模与GDP存在负相关。这表明,从长期来看,经济持续增长会降低对国债的需求,使得国债发行量减少,长此下去,国债规模将会趋于一种良性循环的状态。结果表明,目前我国国债规模仍然处于可控制的范围内,但是仍然存在一定程度的隐患,对此需要谨慎发行国债。第六章,根据结论为指导,对我国国债提出政策建议：加快转变经济增长方式,提高经济实力；将国债利息支出纳入财政预算,使国债规模的扩张变得法制化；增加财政收入的来源；调整财政支出结构、压缩支出。
[Abstract]:Is the national government bonds with its credit, raise funds for the public offering of the maturity of debt service needs a securities. Since 1981 China resumed the issuance of government bonds, with the rapid development of China's market economy and the deepening of economic reform, the scale of the national debt is also growing, especially since 1998 in China, the issuance of treasury bonds take measures to stimulate economic growth, leading to the rapid expansion of the scale of treasury bonds. As everyone knows, the national debt is a double-edged sword, the issuance of treasury bonds can have a positive impact on economic development, but also may play a negative role, the scale of national debt is too large, may even lead to debt crisis. Therefore, study on the scale of treasury bonds is of great significance.
This paper discussed the scale of national debt is the total debt was issued, the appropriate scale of treasury bonds in the limit refers to the national economy this big frame of reference of debt the most satisfactory or most reasonable, this limit is not a specific absolute value but a reasonable interval. The proper scale of national debt is the country government to implement effective macro-control, to maintain the inherent requirements of the rapid development of the national economy. This paper uses the theory and practice of research methods, empirical analysis and normative analysis, selects the 1981-2011 data, using empirical analysis of Eviews6.0 on our country history of debt issuance, and puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations the scale of Treasury I country.
This paper is divided into six chapters, the first chapter is introduction, describes the research background, research significance and the current situation of research on the size of the bond issue at home and abroad; the second chapter is the analysis on the economic effect of national debt, discusses the effective role of government debt on the national economy, national debt scale big negative effect on economy; the third chapter introduces the related theory basis and practical measure of the scale of treasury bonds bonds, these are for the later empirical analysis lay a theoretical basis.
The fourth chapter and the fifth chapter is the focus of this paper. Firstly, using reasonable indicator of international debt scale in China to conduct empirical analysis, investigates the national economy debt burden rate, the deficit rate and debt rate of residents, debt ratio and debt solvency debt dependence, government debt service ratio, the our national debt is in the national economy should be relatively loose and the fiscal debt heavy debt burden of contradiction, but this is not absolute standard as a measure of the scale of treasury bonds is not appropriate, should also be considered from its actual use condition and the government's self compensation ability and the actual condition of our country, because of the scale of treasury bonds by the multiple objective factors, the next period of time, which should be focused on the economic regulation of the debt capacity, at the same time, through the establishment of that China's early period due to Thomas model The rapid expansion of the scale of treasury bonds there is a big risk, but in recent years the state to take appropriate measures to deal with the crisis eased, however, the scale of national debt to expand the debt crisis can not be ignored. Then, further analysis of main factors influencing the scale of national debt in our country, based on the above analysis on the factors, using Granger causality test and selection of abroad Granger the size of the debt issue, then the variables to establish VAR model and cointegration test, cointegration equation and short-term error correction model (VEC model). The influencing factors of China's national debt scale is the most important GDP, fiscal deficit and debt balance, and the scale of national debt in China and GDP there is a negative correlation. This shows that in the long term, sustained economic growth will reduce the demand for government bonds, the issuance of treasury bonds to reduce the amount of debt, this scale will tend to be a good The results show that the scale of China's national debt is still in the controllable range, but there is still a hidden danger to some extent, so we need to issue treasury bonds carefully.
The sixth chapter, according to the conclusions to the guidance of China's national debt policy recommendations: to accelerate the transformation of the mode of economic growth, improve the economic strength; the bond interest expenses included in the financial budget, the debt scale expansion become legalized; increase the source of revenue; adjust the fiscal expenditure structure, reducing spending.

【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.5

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