国际黄金价格的影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-01-20 00:19

本文关键词： 黄金价格美元指数通货膨胀影响因素　出处：《西南财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：黄金,作为一种特殊的大宗商品,具有商品、货币和投资避险的多重属性。不仅是珠宝首饰制作、工业制造和现代高新技术产业的一种重要原材料,也是重要的国际支付手段和财富储备的主要载体；不仅能在危机发生时被当作财富的避风港,也被作为抵御通货膨胀风险的重要工具。黄金作为一种重要的投资避险工具,自2008年金融危机伊始,全球需求大增,价格连续走高；加之2010年伊始,美国等实施量化宽松的货币政策,导致黄金价格一路飙升,从500美元/盎司上涨至1900美元/盎司；至2013年,美国等经济开始复苏,美联储宣布退出量化宽松政策,黄金价格又迅速回落至1200美元/盎司,再次出现巨幅波动。同时随着我国以美元为主的外汇储备持续增长,加之国内CPI居高不下,黄金作为一种重要的投资避险、保值增值的工具,重新成为热门话题。因此,对黄金价格的影响因素研究具有重要的理论和实际意义。本文通过梳理并回顾了过去国内外学者对黄金的研究文献,并对1973年布雷顿森林体系崩溃以来黄金历史价格走势进行回顾,运用数据、图表和相关分析等方法,对影响黄金价格的因素进行理论及实证分析并对黄金价格基本走势进行判断。黄金的多重属性决定了影响黄金价格的因素必定是错综复杂的,影响其价格的因素较一般商品更为复杂多样。本文首先对黄金的供求与价格的关系进行分析；按照国际黄金协会的分类,将黄金供给分为矿产金、官方售金和再生金,经分析认为,黄金价格与官方售金和再生金联系较为紧密,黄金价格与官方售金为负相关关系,与再生金为正相关关系,与矿产金无明显相关关系；需求方面,黄金价格与投资需求呈较强正相关关系,与珠宝需求负相关,与工业科技需求无明显相关关系。并分析得出,官方售金和投资需求影响黄金价格的短期走势。其次本文考虑黄金的货币及投资避险属性,对影响黄金价格的主要因素进行理论分析,并以美元指数、消费者物价指数、股票指数、利率水平及原油价格作为代理变量,对1981年1月至2013年9月期间各因素对黄金价格的影响分段进行实证分析,研究结果表明,在不同时段影响黄金价格的因素不尽相同；美元指数、股票指数、利率水平负向驱动黄金价格,其中,美元汇率对黄金价格走势有着长期稳定的负向驱动作用,利率水平在经济环境等未发生重大变化的情况下对黄金价格的影响较稳定,而股票指数的影响并不稳定,金融危机后甚至同涨同跌,替代效应不显著；通货膨胀与黄金价格并不存在长期稳定的相关性,黄金抵御通货膨胀的作用并没有我们想象的那么明显；虽然黄金价格与原油价格同受美元等因素影响而走势趋同,但原油价格并不会直接影响黄金价格的长期走势;金融危机的发生会使黄金价格上升；地缘政治的动荡会使黄金价格走高,从动荡中恢复平稳会使黄金价格下降。根据研究结论,对黄金价格的未来走势进行了预测；并对国家在黄金政策方面,黄金市场的投资者及黄金的生产者提供建议供参考。对国家来说,应分析黄金价格走势,逐步增加黄金储备,完善我国黄金市场,鼓励并引导民间藏金；对投资者来说,选择时机适当增加黄金资产,但投资组合中黄金资产的比例不宜过大；对黄金生产者来说,提升开采水平,满足多样化的黄金消费投资需求才能不断发展壮大。
[Abstract]:Gold , as a special commodity , has multiple attributes of commodity , currency and investment avoidance . It is not only an important raw material for jewelry manufacturing , industrial manufacturing and modern high - tech industry , but also an important carrier of important international payment instruments and wealth reserves ; not only can be regarded as a haven for wealth in the event of crisis , but also as an important tool against inflation risk . As an important investment avoidance tool , the global demand has increased continuously since the start of the 2008 financial crisis , which has led to a surge in gold prices , rising from US $ 500 per ounce to US $ 1900 / ounce . As the US dollar - based foreign exchange reserves continue to grow , the Federal Reserve announced its withdrawal from quantitative easing , and gold as an important hedge and value - added tool has re - emerged as a hot topic . Therefore , the study of the impact factors on gold prices has important theoretical and practical significance . This paper reviews and reviews the literature on gold at home and abroad , and reviews the trend of gold historical price since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973 , and makes theoretical and empirical analysis on the factors that affect the gold price and makes a judgement on the basic trend of gold price . The multi - attribute of gold determines that the factors that affect the gold price must be complex , and the factors that affect the price of gold are more complex than that of general merchandise . According to the classification of the International Gold Association , gold is divided into mineral gold , official gold and recycled gold . Second , this paper takes into account the monetary and investment avoidance attributes of gold , analyzes the main factors that affect the gold price , and analyzes the influence of factors on the gold price in dollar index , consumer price index , stock index , interest rate level and crude oil price . According to the research conclusion , the future trend of gold price is forecasted ; and for the country in the gold policy , the investors of gold market and the producer of gold are advised for reference . For the country , the gold price trend should be analyzed , the gold reserve should be improved gradually , and the proportion of gold assets in the investment portfolio should not be too large ; for the gold producers , the mining level is promoted , and the diversified gold consumption investment needs can be continuously developed .

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F831.54

【参考文献】