H市政府债务风险预警指标体系的构建研究

发布时间：2018-01-21 06:36

本文关键词： 地方政府债务债务风险预警指标体系预警模型　出处：《重庆理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近几年来，希腊、冰岛、迪拜等西方国家纷纷陷入主权债务危机，经济受到负面影响。越来越多的国家政府意识到：举债一方面可以促进经济发展，另一方面不适当的举债行为有可能加剧地方政府偿债负担，甚至引发债务危机。转轨时期，我国地方政府在推动经济社会可持续发展方面承担了很大责任，但是由于地方政府财权和事权的不匹配导致地方政府通过举债的方式来弥补财力的缺口。当前我国地方政府缺乏健全的债务管理制度与机制，对一些不规范的举债行为缺乏有力的监管，导致地方政府债务风险日趋突显。要想防范和化解债务风险，必须正视风险，加强政府债务监管，，加强预警，有效控制风险。因此，研究地方政府债务风险的预警具有现实意义。本文借鉴国内外地方政府债务风险预警指标体系的研究成果，采用文献研究与案例分析等相结合的研究方法，结合H市政府的具体情况，构建适合H市政府的债务风险预警指标体系，并运用模糊综合评判法构建了H市政府债务风险预警模型。本文的主要研究内容有：第一部分是绪论；第二部分是地方政府债务风险预警体系的相关理论，介绍了地方政府债务风险预警理论和地方政府债务风险预警体系的研究；第三部分介绍H市政府债务概况，包括H市政府债务的基本情况，当前债务存在的问题以及债务风险的成因；第四部分介绍H市政府债务风险预警指标体系的构建，根据指标优选率统计结果遴选出具有代表性的预警指标，构建H市政府债务风险预警指标体系；第五部分介绍H市政府债务风险预警模型的构建，以构建的预警指标体系为依据，运用逐级多次模糊综合评价法的原理建立债务风险预警模型，并加以分析；第六部分提出H市政府债务风险预警的对策及建议。本文以H市政府债务风险为研究对象，深入分析了H市政府债务存在的问题，并以H市政府债务经济数据为基础，构建H市政府债务风险预警指标体系和风险预警模型，对地方政府债务风险预警具有较好的参考价值。
[Abstract]:In recent years, Greece, Iceland, Dubai and other Western countries have been plunged into sovereign debt crisis, and their economies have been adversely affected. More and more governments realize that borrowing can promote economic development on the one hand. On the other hand, improper borrowing behavior may aggravate the debt burden of local governments and even lead to debt crisis. During the transitional period, local governments in our country have assumed a great responsibility in promoting sustainable economic and social development. However, due to the mismatch between local government financial power and power, local governments through the way of debt to make up for the gap in financial resources. At present, our local governments lack a sound debt management system and mechanism. In order to prevent and resolve the debt risk, we must face the risk, strengthen the supervision of government debt, and strengthen the early warning. Therefore, it is of practical significance to study the early warning of local government debt risk. This article draws lessons from the domestic and foreign local government debt risk early warning index system research results, uses the literature research and the case analysis and so on unifies the research method, unifies the H municipal government's concrete situation. The debt risk early warning index system suitable for H city government is constructed, and the early warning model of H city government debt risk is constructed by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The main contents of this paper are as follows: the first part is the introduction; The second part is the local government debt risk early warning system related theory, introduced the local government debt risk early warning theory and the local government debt risk early warning system research; The third part introduces the general situation of H municipal government debt, including the basic situation of H municipal government debt, the current debt problems and the causes of debt risk; Part 4th introduces the construction of debt risk early warning index system of H municipal government, selects representative early warning index according to the statistical results of index selection rate, and constructs H city government debt risk early warning index system. Part 5th introduces the construction of debt risk early-warning model of H municipal government. Based on the established early-warning index system, the debt risk early-warning model is established and analyzed by using the principle of successive fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Part 6th puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions of H-municipal government debt risk warning. This paper takes H municipal government debt risk as the research object, deeply analyzes the problems existing in H municipal government debt, and based on H municipal government debt economic data. The construction of H municipal debt risk early warning index system and risk early warning model has good reference value for local government debt risk early warning.
【学位授予单位】：重庆理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.5

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