基于会计信息视角的F-O修正模型研究

发布时间：2018-02-13 21:03

本文关键词： 股票价值 F-O模型会计信息超常盈余　出处：《长春工业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：1978年至1992年,改革开放后,中国证券市场在中国经济转轨的背景下萌生,预示着我国股票的开始。在这之后的二十几年内,股票的发展成畸形状态。几乎所有投资者对股票的买卖持着很随意的态度,他们只是跟随内幕消息来决定股票的买卖。这种现象导致了股票市场存在着巨大的风险和明显的弊端。同时,借着主流媒介肆无忌惮的宣传,使得越来越多的投资者认为只有跟随庄家,购买的股票才会盈利。正是如此,使得投资者只热衷于短期投资和中性投资,并且投资的股票多数选择高风险高收益的种类,然而,得到的结果却事与愿违。基于以上现状,越来越多的投资者,这其中不乏一些机构投资者和广大的散户,开始从国外入手,寻找正确的投资理念。其中有一种投资理念—价值投资,主要思想侧重于合理的对股权价值进行评估,目的是为了使投资者理性的投资。国外对这一股权估值理论以及模型的研究经历了两个阶段,第一个阶段是以股利为基础进行研究,第二个阶段是以会计收益为基础进行研究,这一研究方法是ohlson在1990年时提出,现以成为决定股权价值的标志内容。在ohlson的剩余收益模型的基础上,由Feltham和ohlson共同完成了更完善的股权估值模型,即F-O模型,这一模型如今已经成为研究股权估值理论和模型的主流之一。随着越来越多的学者对F-O模型的关注,从中也发现了模型的一些问题,但都没有具体的修正措施。笔者通过对F-O模型的细致研究,找出可以完善该模型的两个方面,然后对F-O模型进行修正并借助我国上市公司的财务数据(本文指随机选取的农林牧渔行业的54只股票的财务数据),对这一类行业进行估价,期望能给广大的投资者在“价值投资”理念和投资方法上提供一个借鉴,以抛己之砖,引他之玉。
[Abstract]:From 1978 to 1992, after the reform and opening up, China's securities market sprouted under the background of China's economic transition, indicating the beginning of China's stock market. In the 20 years since then, The development of stocks has become abnormal. Almost all investors have a very casual attitude towards the trading of stocks. They just follow inside information to determine the stock market. This phenomenon leads to huge risks and obvious drawbacks in the stock market. At the same time, they use the mainstream media to propagate unscrupulously. It makes more and more investors think that they can only make a profit by following the bookmaker. That's why investors are only interested in short-term and neutral investments, and most of the stocks they invest in are in high-risk, high-yield categories, however, The results turned out to be counterproductive. Based on the above situation, more and more investors, including some institutional investors and the vast number of retail investors, began to look for the right investment concept from abroad. The main idea is to evaluate the equity value reasonably, in order to make investors invest rationally. The research on the theory and model of equity valuation has gone through two stages. The first stage is based on dividend, the second stage is based on accounting income. This research method is proposed by ohlson in 1990. On the basis of ohlson's residual income model, a more perfect equity valuation model, F-O model, is developed by Feltham and ohlson. This model has become one of the mainstream research theories and models of equity valuation. As more and more scholars pay more and more attention to the F-O model, some problems of the model are also found, but there are no specific correction measures. Through the careful study of the F-O model, the author finds out two aspects of the model that can be perfected. Then the F-O model is revised and evaluated with the financial data of the listed companies in China (this paper refers to the financial data of 54 stocks selected randomly in agriculture, forestry, herding and fishery industries). It is expected to provide a reference to the investors in the concept and method of "value investment", so as to throw away their own bricks and attract their jade.
【学位授予单位】：长春工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51;F830.42

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