我国对外贸易隐含碳排放及低碳贸易政策研究

发布时间：2018-02-26 13:10

本文关键词： 对外贸易隐含碳投入产出 LMDI模型低碳贸易　出处：《中国海洋大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：气候问题是当今世界各国共同面临的一项巨大挑战，引起各国广泛关注和重视，，二氧化碳等温室气体的减排是缓解气候变化的一项有效措施。但是在经济全球化的背景下，我们不能忽视自由贸易造成的污染转移。本文旨在定量分析我国进出口贸易隐含碳排放量及其影响因素，有助于正确认识对外贸易给我国带来的环境影响，为我国贸易结构调整、转变经济增长方式提供有力依据。本文通过运用修正的投入产出模型测算了我国2002、2005、2007及2010年我国进出口贸易隐含碳排放量，结果表明：我国出口隐含碳排放量由2002年的10.99亿吨增加至2007年29.13亿吨，后略有下降，到2010年为27.08亿吨；进口隐含碳量一直处于上升趋势，由2002年4.87亿吨升至2010年11.51亿吨。我国出口贸易隐含碳排放远高于进口隐含碳排放量，我国一直处于隐含碳净出口国地位。同时通过分析两种不同负责制下我国的碳排放责任，我们发现在现行“生产负责制”下，因贸易活动的存在造成我国替别国承担了很大一部分碳排放责任。进一步行业分析我们得出，像化学工业、电子设备制造业等工业部门在我国出口隐含碳中占据主要地位，我国进口贸易中高碳排放行业占进口贸易额比重较高，但其进口规模相较于出口规模较小，同时由于我国技术水平相对较低，造成我国贸易中多数行业处于隐含碳净出口状态。我国在贸易中仍处于环境不利地位，我国贸易结构有待进一步优化。在测算出进出口隐含碳排放的基础上，本文进一步运用LMDI指数分析法对贸易隐含碳排放的影响因素分解为规模效应、结构效应和强度效应。研究结果表明：规模效应是造成我国进出口隐含碳排放增加的主要因素，随着我国贸易规模的不断扩大，我国的进出口隐含碳量也会呈现增长趋势；而强度效应则是抑制进出口隐含碳排放的主要因素，但目前能源效率的提高和生产技术的改善所减少的隐含碳排放并不足以抵消规模效应的影响；结构效应对进出口隐含碳的作用都是正向的，其影响力度远小于规模效应和强度效应，我国进出口结构并未在贸易中发挥减排的作用，有待进一步优化升级。基于以上的研究结果，本文提出我国实行低碳贸易的政策建议，包括能源结构调整、产业结构调整、贸易结构调整、加强国际谈判、争取国际合作等方面，引导我国对外贸易向低碳方向发展。
[Abstract]:Climate problem is a great challenge that all countries in the world are facing, and it has aroused the attention of all countries. The reduction of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide is an effective measure to mitigate climate change. However, in the context of economic globalization, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is an effective measure to mitigate climate change. We can not ignore the pollution transfer caused by free trade. The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively analyze the implied carbon emissions of China's import and export trade and its influencing factors, which is helpful to correctly understand the environmental impact of foreign trade on our country. For our country's trade structure adjustment, changes the economic growth pattern to provide the strength basis. Based on the modified input-output model, the implied carbon emissions of China's import and export trade in 2007 and 2010 are calculated. The results show that the implied carbon emissions of China's exports increased from one billion ninety-nine million tons in 2002 to two billion nine hundred and thirteen million tons in 2007, and then decreased slightly. By 2010, it was two billion seven hundred and eight million tons, and the import implicit carbon content had been on the rise, from 487 million tons on 2002 to one billion one hundred and fifty-one million tons on 2010. The implied carbon emissions of China's export trade were much higher than those of imports. China has always been in the position of net exporter of implied carbon. Through the analysis of China's carbon emission responsibility under two different responsibility systems, we find that under the current "production responsibility system", As a result of the existence of trade activities, China has taken on a large part of the responsibility for carbon emissions for other countries. Further industry analysis shows that industries such as chemical industry, electronic equipment manufacturing and other industrial sectors play a major role in China's export of implied carbon. China's import trade with high carbon emissions accounts for a higher proportion of import trade, but its import scale is smaller than that of exports, and because of the relatively low level of technology in China, As a result, most industries in China's trade are in the state of net export of implied carbon, and China is still in a disadvantageous position in trade, and its trade structure needs to be further optimized. On the basis of calculating the implied carbon emissions from import and export, this paper further uses the LMDI index analysis method to decompose the influencing factors of trade implied carbon emissions into scale effects. Structure effect and intensity effect. The results show that scale effect is the main factor causing the increase of China's import and export implied carbon emissions. With the expansion of China's trade scale, China's import and export implicit carbon content will also show an increasing trend; The intensity effect is the main factor to restrain the import and export implied carbon emissions, but the improvement of energy efficiency and the improvement of production technology can not offset the impact of scale effect. The effect of structural effect on import and export implied carbon is positive, and its effect is much less than that of scale effect and intensity effect. The structure of China's import and export has not played the role of emission reduction in trade and needs to be further optimized and upgraded. Based on the above research results, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions for implementing low-carbon trade in China, including energy structure adjustment, industrial structure adjustment, trade structure adjustment, strengthening international negotiations, striving for international cooperation, etc. Guide our country's foreign trade to develop in the direction of low carbon.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.5;F205

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