地方债置换的货币效应研究

发布时间：2018-02-27 20:32

本文关键词： 地方债置换货币效应金融机构资产负债表信用创造　出处：《中国财政科学研究院》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：地方债置换,是指地方政府通过发行地方政府债券置换纳入预算管理的非政府债券形式存量政府债务。截至2014年末,全国地方政府债务余额达15.4万亿元,其中90%以上通过非政府债券方式举借,地方政府债务风险日益成为全社会关注的热点问题。为缓解地方政府偿债压力,经国务院批准,2015年财政部开始推行地方债置换,当年下达置换额度3.2万亿元,2016年置换额度增至5万亿元。作为一种新型的财政政策工具,地方债置换涉及债务、财政、货币、投资等诸多领域,需要多个政府部门协同配合,国家在政策执行过程中尤其需要注意其对货币供给的影响。当前国内外文献对此的研究还比较薄弱。本文立足货币供给的微观机制,以金融机构资产负债表和流动性的层级结构为分析工具,全面分析、评估了地方债置换及其政策对流动性、货币供应量和货币政策的近远期影响。研究结论可为之后地方债置换政策执行中的货币政策协同提供参考,相关研究方法可为财政货币政策协调问题的研究提供借鉴。本文研究发现,地方债置换将从国库收支、货币创造两个渠道对货币供给产生影响。地方债置换通过国库收支可能对银行体系的流动性产生短期冲击,通过货币创造将增加货币供应量,具体影响则因存量债务形式的不同而不同。置换银行贷款、银行持有的企业债券和“银行影子”业务不会对M2产生影响,置换非银行机构持有的企业债券、传统影子银行融资和其他债务则会导致M2的增加。在对地方债置换基本情况进行介绍的基础上,本文对地方债置换的货币效应进行了实证评估。评估发现:由于少量置换资金滞留国库,2015-2016年地方债置换事实上对银行体系的流动性有一定影响,初始冲击在6,000亿元/年至7,500亿元/年之间;财政部门国库现金管理、加快支出节奏、盘活存量资金的系列措施“对冲”了部分流动性影响;地方债置换能创造的M2总量约为2.4万亿元,按三年计算约为8,000亿元/年,长远来看这部分货币会“沉淀”下来;地方债置换意外推动了地方政府国库现金管理的发展,对货币政策实施可能产生长远影响,地方政府债券纳入部分货币政策操作的抵(质)押品范围则为央行向市场投放基础货币提供了一个新工具。本文认为,地方债置换在一定程度上加大了国库管理难度,扰动了货币金融指标,挤压了货币政策空间。为加强财政货币政策协调,本文建议建立财政货币政策统筹协调机制,深化现代国库管理制度改革,提高货币政策应对自发性因素的能力,强化政府债券在货币政策中的作用。在进一步的讨论中,本文认为地方债置换蕴含着货币创造机制调整的趋势,以政府债券为代表的债券业务将在未来的货币创造和货币政策操作中发挥更加重要的作用。当然,本文还存在着不少不足。在地方债置换的货币效应的理论分析中没有建立统一的数量模型,定量评估偏重资产负债表分析,评估的精确性方面有待进一步提高。
[Abstract]:Local debt replacement refers to the local government through the issuance of local government bonds included in the budget management of the replacement of the stock of government bonds form non government debt. By the end of 2014, the local government debt amounted to 15 trillion and 400 billion yuan, of which more than 90% of the non borrowing government bonds, local government debt risk has become the focus of the whole society. To ease the pressure on local government debt service, approved by the State Council, the Ministry of Finance in 2015 to start the implementation of local debt replacement, the replacement by the amount of 3 trillion and 200 billion yuan, in 2016 the replacement amount increased to 5 trillion yuan. As a new tool of fiscal policy, local debt replacement involving debt, fiscal, monetary, investment and other areas, many government departments need to cooperate the state, in the process of policy implementation especially need to pay attention to the impact on the money supply. The current research literature at home and abroad is still relatively weak in this regard . based on the microscopic mechanism of money supply, the hierarchical structure of financial institutions balance sheet and liquidity analysis tools, comprehensive analysis, assessment of local government debt and its replacement policy for liquidity, in the long-term effects of money supply and monetary policy. The research conclusion can be performed for local debt replacement policy in currency policy coordination to provide reference, relevant research methods can provide reference for the research on the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy. This study found that the local debt replacement from Treasury payments, money creation two channels have an impact on the money supply. The local debt replacement through national treasury may have the impact of short-term liquidity in the banking system, through money creation increase the money supply, the specific impact on the stock of debt due to different forms and different. The replacement of bank loans, corporate bonds held by banks and shadow banks "industry The service will not affect the M2, replacement of non bank institutions hold corporate bonds, the traditional shadow bank financing and other debt will lead to the increase of M2. This paper introduces the basic situation in the replacement of local debt, the currency effect on local debt replacement for empirical evaluation. The assessment found that: because a small amount of replacement funds retention of Treasury, has certain influence on 2015-2016 years of local debt replacement in fact to the banking system liquidity, the initial impact in the 600 billion yuan / year to 750 billion yuan / year; treasury cash management in the financial sector, spending to accelerate the pace, a series of measures to revitalize the stock funds hedge "effects of liquidity; the amount of M2 local debt replacement can create about 2 trillion and 400 billion yuan, according to three years is about 800 billion yuan / year, the long run this part of money will" deposit "down; local debt replacement accident to promote local government treasury now The development of fund management, the implementation may have a long-term impact on the monetary policy, local government bonds included in the part of the monetary policy operation against (quality) collateral scope for the central bank to provide a new tool to market base currency. This paper argues that the local debt has increased the difficulty of replacement of treasury management in a certain extent, the disturbance of the currency the financial index, squeezing the monetary policy space. In order to strengthen the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy, this paper proposed the establishment of fiscal and monetary policy coordination mechanism, deepen the reform of treasury management system, improve the ability of monetary policy to deal with spontaneous factors, strengthening the government bonds in monetary policy. In the further discussion, this paper thinks that the local debt replacement contains the money creation mechanism to adjust the trend of government bonds as the representative of the bond business will be created and the operation of monetary policy in the future play a more money Of course, there are still many shortcomings. In the theoretical analysis of the monetary effect of local debt replacement, there is no unified quantitative model. Quantitative evaluation is biased towards the balance sheet analysis, and the accuracy of evaluation needs further improvement.

【学位授予单位】：中国财政科学研究院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.5

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