公司债券信用风险识别

发布时间：2018-02-27 23:11

本文关键词： 信用风险公司债券财务数据财务比率财务风险　出处：《对外经济贸易大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在经历了不到十年的快速发展之后，，我国公司债券市场于2014年3月出现了首例实质性违约事件。事件的发生并不是偶然的，其背后蕴藏着制度、市场、监管者、发债人、投资者、中介机构等等各方的问题是发人深思的。纵观我国近些年金融市场，各种违约事件发生的风险和概率都在增加，例如信贷违约、信托违约频频映入人们的眼帘。远离这类投资，当然可以完全避免风险；然而，面对相对较高的回报，有很多人理性不足，铤而走险，在缺乏对债券市场、法律法规、与信用风险有关信息了解的情况下，没有完善的风险补偿的机制下，完全承担了信用风险导致的全部损失。本文利用公开的财务信息，从财务数据和财务比率中发现公司在盈利、经营、偿债能力的变化，对财务状况进行详细的分析并且对分析对象的财务风险做出判断，根据财务风险对公司债券的信用风险进行定性的识别，从而做出投资决策。虽然财务信息、财务数据和财务比率在金融领域内常常受到人们的诟病，例如容易造假，受到粉饰等等，但基于市场与学术的现状，目前对与公司债券信用风险的识别最简单和最有效地方式还是要使用财务信息。本文避免了使用受诸多条件限制的复杂模型及其关于模型实用性的问题，而基于财务信息的优势，其应用更容易被投资者接受，因为模型的建立与使用通常受到专业人士的追捧。考虑到时间、成本与效果，财务信息应作为首选。而且从实际的应用效果来看，可以对公司债券信用风险做到识别。虽然对公司债券信用风险的识别上，无法给出一个准确的量化的指标，但通过判断，投资者可以根据自身的情况做出投资决策。
[Abstract]:After less than a decade of rapid development, China's corporate bond market in March 2014 appeared the first substantive default event. The incident is not accidental, behind which there are institutions, markets, regulators, debt issuers. The problems of investors, intermediaries and other parties are thought-provoking. Looking at the financial markets in China in recent years, the risks and probability of various default events are increasing, such as credit default. Trust defaults frequently catch people's eyes. Far from such investments, of course, risks can be completely avoided; however, in the face of relatively high returns, there are many people who are irrational and take risks in the absence of laws and regulations on the bond market. Under the condition of knowing the information about credit risk and without perfect mechanism of risk compensation, it bears all the losses caused by credit risk. This paper makes use of the public financial information to find the change of the company's profitability, operation and solvency from the financial data and the financial ratio, and makes a detailed analysis of the financial situation and makes a judgment on the financial risk of the analyzed object. The credit risk of corporate bonds is identified qualitatively based on financial risks to make investment decisions. Although financial information, financial data and financial ratios are often criticized in the financial world, such as easy fraud, Be whitewashed and so on, but based on market and academic status quo, At present, the simplest and most effective way to identify the credit risk of corporate bonds is to use financial information. Based on the advantages of financial information, its application is more easily accepted by investors, because the establishment and use of models are often sought after by professionals. Financial information should be the first choice. And from the practical application effect, we can identify the corporate bond credit risk. Although the identification of corporate bond credit risk can not give an accurate quantitative index, but through judgment, Investors can make investment decisions according to their own circumstances.
【学位授予单位】：对外经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51

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