中国股票市场发展与经济增长关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-04 15:39

本文选题：股票市场发展　切入点：经济增长　出处：《沈阳理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：股票市场发展与经济增长之间的关系一直是国内外经济学家比较关注的问题,国外经济学家从20世纪中叶就开始研究两者之间的关系，但其结论也是众说纷纭。随着中国经济发展迅速，股票市场也经历着巨大的变革，特别是2005年开始的股权分置改革，改变了中国A股市场的上市公司内部普遍存在“两种不同性质股票”（非流通股和社会流通股）的局面，从而使得股权分置改革前后对股票市场发展和经济增长到底有何影响也成为各界关注的焦点问题。本文对股权分置改革完成前后两个阶段进行了实证研究，以探讨中国股票市场发展与经济增长关系的特征。第一部分是绪论，阐述了文章的研究背景、意义、文献综述以及研究目的。第二部分是理论分析阶段，主要阐述了经济增长对股票市场发展的影响途径，以及股票市场通过分散风险、筹集资金、信息揭示、资源配置等功能影响经济增长。第三部分是本文的核心部分，确定了股票市场发展的衡量指标主要为资本化率、交易率、换手率和上证指数，经济增长的衡量指标为国内生产总值、固定资产投资额和制造业采购经理人指数，然后通过协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉动响应分析分别对股权分置改革前后的数据进行实证检验，以剖析两者之间的关系。第四部分对实证结果进行分析并提出相关建议。通过实证分析可知股权分置改革前，中国股票市场发展与经济增长两者之间存在弱相关关系，而经过股权分置改革，，两者关系有了很大的改善，向良性发展。从本文实证研究可知，改变我国股票市场不合理的制度和结构，对股市健康发展，发挥自身功能，促进经济长期健康发展具有重大的意义。
[Abstract]:The relationship between stock market development and economic growth has always been a concern of economists at home and abroad. Foreign economists have been studying the relationship between the two since the middle of 20th century. With the rapid development of China's economy, the stock market has also undergone tremendous changes, especially the split share structure reform that began in 2005. It has changed the situation in which "two different kinds of stocks" (non-tradable shares and social tradable shares) are common in listed companies in China's A-share market. Therefore, the influence on stock market development and economic growth before and after the reform of split share structure has become the focus of attention. This paper makes an empirical study on the two stages before and after the completion of the split share structure reform in order to explore the characteristics of the relationship between the development of China's stock market and economic growth. The first part is the introduction, expounding the research background, significance, literature review and research purpose. The second part is the theory analysis stage, mainly elaborated the economic growth to the stock market development influence way, as well as the stock market through disperses the risk, raises the fund, the information discovery, the resources allocation and so on function influence economic growth. The third part is the core part of this paper, which determines that the main indicators of stock market development are capitalization rate, transaction rate, turnover rate and Shanghai Stock Exchange index, and GDP is the measure of economic growth. The fixed assets investment and purchasing manager index of manufacturing industry are tested by co-integration test, Granger causality test and pulsation response analysis to analyze the relationship between them. Part 4th analyzes the empirical results and puts forward some suggestions. Through the empirical analysis, we can know that there is a weak correlation between the development of Chinese stock market and economic growth before the reform of split share structure, but after the reform of split share structure, there is a weak correlation between the development of Chinese stock market and economic growth. The relationship between the two has been greatly improved to a benign development. From the empirical study in this paper, we can see that it is of great significance to change the unreasonable system and structure of the stock market in China, to develop the stock market healthily, to give play to its own function and to promote the long-term healthy development of the economy.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.1;F832.51

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