强制现金股利政策及其经济后果

发布时间：2018-03-11 03:05

本文选题：强制现金股利政策　切入点：事件研究法　出处：《重庆大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：针对上市公司现金股利分配普遍偏低，连续性及稳定性不足的现象，出于引导证券市场健康发展，增强其长期信心及保护中小投资者权益的目的，有关监管部门自2000年底开始出台了一系列强制现金股利政策以促使上市公司建立良好的现金股利分配机制。本文重点针对2008年10月9日证监会发布《关于修改上市公司现金分红若干规定的决定》这一事件，利用短期事件研究法考察市场对强制现金股利政策颁布期间的市场反应。同时，利用事件后2009年至2011年的月度收益交易数据开展购买—持有异常收益（Buy and Hold Abnormal Return）长期事件研究，并对三年36个月的月收益率数据进行单因素方差分析及多元回归分析。最后，在稳健性检验中，本文使用LOGISTIC回归对上市企业的现金股利分配意愿进行了分析验证，并建立多元回归模型验证强制现金股利政策对企业的现金股利分配水平及政策颁布前后有不同现金股利分配行为的企业的市场价值的影响。通过多种实证方法的研究分析，本文认为证券监管下的强制现金股利政策对上市公司的派现行为有显著影响，明显增强了上市公司现金股利分配意愿，，但对其分派水平的影响并不那么显著。可能基于我国资本市场的弱有效性及其年轻性、投资者的投机心理、上市公司特殊的股权结构等各方面原因，无论是投资者还是上市公司均对现金股利分配作壁上观，表现为短期市场负面反应、连续现金股利分配上市公司数量少且其企业价值相较无分红企业并无显著提升。这样看来，监管目标并未很好地实现。可见，培育一个健康的资本市场仍需长时间的努力。
[Abstract]:In order to guide the healthy development of the securities market, enhance its long-term confidence and protect the rights and interests of small and medium-sized investors, the cash dividend distribution of listed companies is generally on the low side, and the continuity and stability are insufficient, so as to guide the healthy development of the securities market. Since end of 2000, regulators have issued a series of mandatory cash dividend policies to encourage listed companies to establish a good cash dividend distribution mechanism. This paper focuses on the incident that the Securities Regulatory Commission issued a decision on amending some provisions on cash dividends of listed companies on October 9th 2008. Using the short-term event research method to investigate the market reaction to the compulsory cash dividend policy, meanwhile, using the monthly earnings trading data from 2009 to 2011 after the event, the long-term event study of buying and holding abnormal earnings and Hold Abnormal return is carried out. Finally, in the robustness test, we use LOGISTIC regression to analyze and verify the cash dividend distribution intention of listed companies. The multiple regression model is established to verify the effect of mandatory cash dividend policy on the level of cash dividend distribution and the market value of enterprises with different behavior of cash dividend distribution before and after the promulgation of the policy. Through the research and analysis of various empirical methods, this paper holds that the mandatory cash dividend policy under securities supervision has a significant impact on the cash dividend behavior of listed companies, and obviously strengthens the willingness of cash dividend distribution of listed companies. However, the effect on the distribution level is not so significant. It may be due to the weak validity of our capital market and its youth, investors' speculative psychology, the special equity structure of listed companies, and so on. Both investors and listed companies are indifferent to the distribution of cash dividends, which is reflected in the negative reaction of the short-term market. The number of listed companies with continuous cash dividend distribution is small and the enterprise value of the listed companies is not significantly higher than that of the enterprises without dividends. Regulatory goals have not been met well. It is clear that it will take a long time to foster a healthy capital market.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51;F275

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