地方政府性债务风险协同预警指标体系研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 08:46

本文选题：地方政府　切入点：债务风险　出处：《哈尔滨商业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2016年10月,时任财政部部长楼继伟在(G20)财长和央行行长会议上指出:目前中国中央政府债务非常健康,占GDP的18%,扩张较快的主要是地方债务问题。我国地方政府性债务总额风险虽然总体可控,但局部风险已经凸显,加之传统行业产能过剩和经济周期的因素,地方政府性债务风险必须得到重视。PPP模式的推广将取代地方投融资平台的地位成为减轻地方政府举债压力的重要途径。地方政府性债务的风险结构将会发生变化,这对地方政府性债务的风险协同预警指标体系的构建提出了新的要求。单一化的风险预警指标体系很难满足新的要求,构建多层次的风险协同预警指标体系有利于地方政府性债务风险的综合量化和风险协同预警机制的建立。将协同管理理论、公债风险理论和风险度量理论作为研究的基础理论,充实了该方面的相关理论体系,具有很大的理论意义。地方政府性债务风险协同预警指标体系的构建将会对地方政府性债务风险预警和防范起到指导性的作用。结合我国地方政府性债务的现状和风险结构,利用AHP层次分析法构建模型,对债务风险预警指标体系的构建和风险预警具有一定的现实意义。从债务风险协同预警指标体系相关理论基础出发,对地方政府性债务风险预警指标体系的相关概念进行了界定,阐述了地方政府性债务风险的内涵和分类,分析了地方政府性债务风险协同预警指标体系的构建机理,并以协同管理理论、公债风险理论和风险度量理论作为研究的理论基础;阐述了我国地方政府性债务风险协同预警指标体系的现状,揭示了风险预警指标体系构建不科学、预警指标单一化和配套管理措施不健全的问题,分析了问题产生的原因;借鉴了美国俄亥俄州、澳大利亚、巴西和印度等国外发达和发展中国家在债务风险预警方面的先进经验,提出了完善债务风险协同预警评估指标体系、建立风险监测数据库、建立全口径的预算约束机制、建立适合国情的协同预警组织结构和探索地方政府性债务风险协同预警联动制度的政策建议。
[Abstract]:At a meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors on October 2016, then finance minister Lou Jiwei pointed out: at present, China's central government debt is very healthy. Accounting for 18% of GDP, the main reason for the rapid expansion is the local debt problem. Although the total risk of local government debt in China is generally controllable, the local risk has been highlighted, in addition to the overcapacity of traditional industries and the factors of the economic cycle. Local government debt risk must be valued. PPP model will replace the status of local investment and financing platform as an important way to reduce local government debt pressure. The risk structure of local government debt will change. This puts forward new requirements for the construction of the risk coordination early warning index system of local government debt. The single risk early warning index system is very difficult to meet the new requirements. The establishment of multi-level risk coordination early warning index system is beneficial to the comprehensive quantification of local government debt risk and the establishment of risk coordination early warning mechanism. The theory of cooperative management, the theory of public debt risk and the theory of risk measurement are taken as the basic theories of the research. It enriches the relevant theoretical system in this field, It is of great theoretical significance. The construction of cooperative early warning index system of local government debt risk will play a guiding role in early warning and prevention of local government debt risk, combined with the present situation and risk structure of local government debt in China. Using AHP analytic hierarchy process to construct the model has certain practical significance for the construction of debt risk early warning index system and risk early warning. Based on the related theory foundation of debt risk coordination early warning index system, this paper analyzes the relationship between debt risk early warning index system and debt risk warning index system. This paper defines the related concepts of the local government debt risk early warning index system, expounds the connotation and classification of the local government debt risk, and analyzes the construction mechanism of the local government debt risk coordination early warning index system. Based on the theory of collaborative management, the theory of public debt risk and the theory of risk measurement, this paper expounds the present situation of the index system of local government debt risk coordination and early warning, and reveals the unscientific construction of the index system of risk early warning. The problems of the singleness of early warning indicators and the imperfect management measures are analyzed, and the causes of the problems are analyzed. The advanced experiences of developed and developing countries, such as Brazil and India, in debt risk early warning, put forward the improvement of debt risk coordination early warning evaluation index system, the establishment of risk monitoring database, and the establishment of a full-caliber budget constraint mechanism. To establish a cooperative early warning organization structure suitable for national conditions and to explore the policy recommendations of the linkage system of local government debt risk coordination and early warning.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨商业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.5

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