互联网货币基金对商业银行盈利能力影响的研究

发布时间：2018-03-27 13:41

本文选题：互联网货币基金　切入点：商业银行　出处：《浙江大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：2013年,以阿里巴巴联合天弘基金在支付宝上推出的"余额宝"业务为代表,各种互联网货币基金产品大量涌现,阿里、腾讯、百度等互联网巨头纷纷在该领域布局,传统的产业形态正在被搅局,对国内商业银行的传统业务产生直接的冲击。本文首先介绍了互联网货币基金的概念、运营机制及特点,并用案例分析的形式展示了目前互联网货币基金在银行理财业务中的发展新业态。在此大背景下,接着就互联网货币基金对商业银行盈利能力的影响进行理论分析,将商业银行的存款业务和理财业务作为分析的切入点,分析发现互联网货币基金的发展会侵蚀银行低成本负债规模,抬高银行资金的获取成本,进而影响存款业务的盈利能力;且互联网货币基金会减少银行代销理财产品的手续费收入及销售自营理财产品的可得收入,抬高银行通过销售理财产品进行揽储的资金成本,从而削弱银行理财业务的盈利能力。接下来本文利用实证模型对上述理论分析结果进行检验,首先就互联网货币基金是否对银行盈利能力产生影响,以及其具体影响的程度的大小做出相关实证分析。在此基础上,通过敏感性分析验证互联网货币基金对商业银行存款业务盈利能力的影响;通过VAR模型、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解验证互联网货币基金对商业银行理财业务盈利能力的影响。实证检验结果显示,互联网货币基金产品的发展对于银行盈利能力产生较大程度的负向冲击。部分商业银行在互联网货币基金达到一定的收益和一定替代比例时,不仅使其资金获取成本大幅提升,甚至会对其以存贷利差为主导的盈利模式产生强烈影响;而且互联网货币基金产品的收益率会对银行理财产品的收益率产生正向冲击,削弱银行理财业务的盈利能力。最后根据理论及实证分析的结果,本文从存款业务、理财业务以及业务创新转型三大方面对银行未来的应对策略提出相应建议。
[Abstract]:In 2013, as represented by the "Yu'e Bao" business launched on Alipay by Alibaba and Tianhong Fund, a large number of Internet money fund products emerged. Internet giants such as Ali, Tencent, Baidu and so on have laid out in this field one after another. The traditional industrial form is being disrupted, which has a direct impact on the traditional business of domestic commercial banks. Firstly, this paper introduces the concept, operation mechanism and characteristics of the Internet Monetary Fund. In the form of case study, the paper shows the new development of Internet Monetary Fund in the banking business. Under this background, the paper makes a theoretical analysis on the influence of Internet Monetary Fund on the profitability of commercial banks. Taking the deposit business and financial management business of the commercial bank as the starting point of the analysis, it is found that the development of the Internet monetary fund will erode the scale of the bank's low cost debt, raise the cost of obtaining the bank's funds, and then affect the profitability of the deposit business. In addition, the Internet Monetary Fund has reduced the handling fees of banks selling financial products on their behalf and the income available for the sale of self-owned financial products, raising the cost of funds for banks to collect funds through the sale of financial products. In order to weaken the profitability of banking business, this paper uses empirical model to test the results of the above theoretical analysis, first of all, whether the Internet Monetary Fund has an impact on the profitability of banks. On the basis of sensitivity analysis, the paper verifies the influence of internet money fund on the profitability of deposit business of commercial banks; Granger causality test by VAR model. Impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to verify the influence of Internet money fund on the profitability of commercial banks' financial management business. The development of Internet Monetary Fund products has a large negative impact on the profitability of banks. When some commercial banks reach a certain income and a certain replacement ratio of Internet money funds, they not only increase their capital acquisition costs substantially. It will even have a strong impact on its profit model, which is dominated by deposit and loan spreads, and the yield of Internet money fund products will have a positive impact on the rate of return of bank wealth management products. Finally, according to the results of theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper puts forward corresponding suggestions on the future strategies of banks from three aspects: deposit business, financial management business and business innovation transformation.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51;F832.33;F830.42

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