中国地方政府债券安全发行规模研究

发布时间：2018-03-28 18:21

本文选题：地方政府债券　切入点：市政债券　出处：《中共上海市委党校》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国虽然尚未正式允许地方政府公开发行地方政府债券，但是已经开始进行试点。十八届三中全会《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》中明确指出，允许地方政府通过发债等多种方式拓宽城市建设融资渠道，可见中央政府已经开始积极筹备发展地方政府债券。在此背景下，对地方政府债券进行风险防范等安全性方面的研究显得十分迫切，其中，安全发行规模是关键部分之一。由于中国尚未开始发行真正意义上的地方政府债券，对于债券发行规模的研究无本国的经验可循，因此要确定中国地方政府债券的发行规模就需要借鉴国外地方政府债券发行规模的经验。本文选取了三个具有代表性的国家：美国、日本和波兰，进行地方政府债券发行规模的分析。通过对这三个国家的地方政府债券发行规模的分析，发现他们的地方政府债券发行规模与政府债券总额、债券市场总规模、GDP、地方财政收入和总税收等指标存在一定的比例关系，即地方政府债券的发行规模占政府债券总规模的35%左右，占债券市场总规模的比重约7.5%，占当年GDP的2.5%左右，占当年地方财政收入的15%左右；地方政府债券余额占当年GDP的比重保持在23.9%左右，占财政收入的120%左右；所有地方政府的债务限制在总税收的60%等。本文将此类比例关系运用至我国的地方政府债券发行规模的计算，其中，考虑到目前中美债券市场的差异性较大，美国的债券市场中企业债券和金融债券的交易相当活跃，而目前在中国这些债券在债券市场中所占的比重很小，，因此本文认为通过债券市场总规模来计算的指标不具有参考意义，将其剔除。除了上述比例指标外，本文还结合了国际上通用的发展中国家地方政府债务警戒标准——债务负担率和债务依存度。因此，本文根据以上具有代表性的国家的经验比例指标和国际通用的警戒指标计算出了一系列参考值，秉承审慎原则，在计算出的众多参考值中选取较小的数值作为我国地方政府债券发行规模的参考依据，即中国2013年的地方政府债券发行总额应在8362.68亿元左右，地方政府债券余额应在66298.2亿元左右。据审计署公布的2013年审计报告数据显示，截至2013年6月底，地方政府负有偿还责任的债务有108859.17亿元。显然，我国现有的地方政府债务总量已远远超过此处计算的地方政府债券理想规模，这说明在宏观总量上需要严格控制地方政府债务总规模。但这并不意味着要否定地方政府发行债券的可行性，因为我国各地区经济发展状况参差不齐，全国地方政府债务总量巨大并不代表每个地方政府都负债累累，对于一些财政运行状况良好的省市，例如上海，就应当考虑赋予其发行地方政府债券的权利，因此全国地方政府债务总量的控制与允许某些地区发行地方政府债券并不矛盾，并不能因为全国地方政府债务总量过大就否定所有地方政府发行债券的权利。因此本文认为虽然全国地方债务总量较大，但是对于不同的省市需要区别对待，对于经济发展状况较好的省市应当考虑赋予其发债权。在宏观上，通过上述指标比例法来估算中国地方政府债券的安全发行规模，操作简便、直观且易于判断。在微观上，本文发现还需要为各省市提供更加精确的测算方法来控制规模，辅助指标比例法，完善中国地方政府债券发行规模的测算体系。本文起初意图找到关于地方政府债券的数理模型来分析中国各省市的地方政府债券的发行规模，但是美国、日本等国家是根据他们各自往年的经验逐渐摸索出适合他们自身的地方政府债券发行规模，并没有提出研究数理模型的需求，也就没有现成的地方政府债券的数理模型可以借鉴。而我国如果开始发行真正意义上的地方政府债券，将是一个全新的探索，并没有自身的历史经验数据可借鉴，便无法像美、日那样根据往年经验判断安全发行规模。当下我国正处于探索地方政府债券发行规模的初始阶段，需要借鉴一个科学可行的方法来估算安全规模保障地方政府债券初始阶段的有效运行，以便在此基础上不断调整改进积累经验，逐渐形成我国自身的一套管理和控制地方政府债券发行规模的体系。于是，本文又改变了思路，从信用风险的角度出发，发现可以借鉴和利用有关信用风险定量模型来精确量化各省市的地方政府债券的发行规模。于是，本文运用了适当改造后的KMV模型来研究地方政府债券的安全发行规模。并以上海市为例，运用计量方法回归预测出2013年的上海市的地方财政收入，确定地方财政收入的担保比例，运用上述改造后的KMV模型，得出2013年上海市地方政府债券发债规模在1356亿元时，其违约率在0.4%之内，是安全的。最后本文提出了相关政策建议，即应当通过谨慎选择发债主体、严格控制发债规模、建立公开透明的财务报告制度和信息披露制度、设立偿债基金、建立地方政府债券担保制度、完善与量化政府信用评级机制、建立地方政府债务风险预警与控制系统等多个方面，来完善各项地方政府债券发行的运行机制，以保障地方政府债券安全有效地运行。
[Abstract]:Although China has not yet formally to allow local governments to issue local government bonds to the public, but the practice has been carried out in the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee. "The CPC Central Committee on deepening reform of the overall number of major issues decision > clearly pointed out, to allow local governments to issue bonds through a variety of ways to broaden the financing channels of city construction, the central government has begun actively preparing for the development of local government bonds. Under this background, local government bonds on the security risk prevention is very urgent, the security issue size is one of the key parts.
Because China has not yet started offering the real meaning of local government bonds, the bond issuance experience of their own, so make sure the local government bonds Chinese requires foreign local government bond issuance experience. This paper selected three representative countries: the United States, Japan and Poland carries on the analysis, the local government bond issuance. Through the three countries, the local government bond issuance scale analysis, they found the local government bond issuance and the total amount of the bonds, the total size of the bond market, GDP, is a proportional relation index total tax of local fiscal revenue and the local government bonds the issuance of government bonds accounted for the total size of about 35%, proportion of the total size of the bond market is about 7.5%, accounting for about 2.5% of GDP, accounting for the local fiscal revenue Around 15%; local government bonds accounted for the proportion of GDP remained at about 23.9%, accounting for 120% of revenue; all local government debt limit in 60% of total tax revenue. This article will use the relationship between such proportion to China's local government bond issuance program, which, considering the difference the bond market is larger, the bond market in corporate bonds and financial bonds trading is very active, but in China these bonds in the bond market in the proportion is very small, so it could be calculated by the total size of the bond market index has no reference value, will be removed. In addition to the above proportion index in this paper, with the degree of dependence on international general developing countries local government debt warning standard -- debt burden and debt rate. Therefore, according to the above representative The experience of the national proportion index and international general warning indicators calculated a series of reference value, adhering to the principle of prudence, in a number of reference values calculated value selected smaller as our country's local government bonds issuing scale of reference, which is the amount of local government bonds issued Chinese in 2013 should be around 836 billion 268 million yuan, the local the balance of government bonds should be around 6 trillion and 629 billion 820 million yuan. According to the data released by the Audit Commission audit report in 2013 showed that as of the end of June 2013, the local government bears the responsibility to repay the debt of 10 trillion and 885 billion 917 million yuan. Obviously, the existing total local government debt in China has far exceeded the local government bonds here calculated ideal size, indicating a need to strictly control the total scale the local government debt in the macro aspect. But this does not mean to deny the feasibility of local government bonds, because each region of China by Economic development is uneven, the huge amount of local government debt does not mean that every local government debt, for some financial operation in good provinces, such as Shanghai, it should be given the right to issue local government bonds, so the total control of local government debt and allow some regions to issue local government bonds are not contradictory, and not because the total amount of the country's local government debt is too large to deny all local government bonds right. So this paper argues that although the total national debt is large, but for different provinces and cities need to be treated differently, for better economic development of the provinces and cities should be given the right to issuing bonds.
At the macro level, the security issue size, to estimate China local government bonds through the index proportion method is simple, intuitive and easy to judge. At the micro level, this paper found that also need to measure more accurate method to control the scale of the provinces, the proportion of Chinese auxiliary index method, improve the local government bond issuance estimation system at first. This paper intended to find a mathematical model about local government bonds of various provinces and cities Chinese local government bonds, but the United States, Japan and other countries are based on their previous experience and gradually worked out for their own local government bond issuance, and did not put forward the mathematical model of demand, there is no the mathematical model of local government bonds is available for reference. And if our country began to issue the real meaning of local government bonds, will be a full A new exploration, and no historical data itself can be used for reference, it can not be like the United States, Japan that based on past experience to judge the safety issue size. Now China is in the exploration of the local government bond issuance in the initial stage, needs to draw a scientific and feasible method to estimate the safe and efficient operation of local government bonds in the initial size of the protection the stage, on the basis of continuous adjustment and improvement of accumulated experience, and gradually formed our own set of management and control of the local government bond issuance system. So this paper has changed the idea of starting from the credit risk perspective, that can be used for reference and the credit risk quantitative model to accurately quantify the various provinces and cities the local government bonds. Thus, the safety issue of the size of this paper uses KMV model to study after the appropriate transformation of local government bonds. And above sea city An example, using econometric regression method predict the 2013 Shanghai local fiscal income, determine the local fiscal revenue guarantee proportion, using the KMV model of the transformation, the Shanghai city in 2013 local government bond issuance scale of 135 billion 600 million yuan, the default rate in 0.4%, is safe.
Finally, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions, which should be carefully chosen by issuers, strictly control the scale of bonds, the establishment of an open and transparent financial reporting system and information disclosure system, the establishment of a sinking fund, the establishment of local government debt guarantee system, improve the government's credit rating mechanism and quantitative aspects, establish the system of local government debt risk early warning and control so, to improve the operating mechanism of the local government bonds, local government bonds in order to ensure the operation is safe and effective.

【学位授予单位】：中共上海市委党校
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.5;F832.51

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