我国房地产业股市预警系统的研究

发布时间：2018-03-31 07:17

本文选题：房地产股市　切入点：预警模型　出处：《河北经贸大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：伴随经济的增长，我国股票市场发展规模渐渐壮大，同时扮演的角色越来越重要，，我们应该高度重视和支持股票市场的发展。股票市场的运行不稳定，常常在高起低落间循环反复。在我国的股票市场中，房地产业的股票市场份额很大，其运行特征与股市大盘有着高度的相关性。房地产业股票市场的运行显著地反映了整个股票市场的运行特征，细小的变动首先出现在房地产股票市场中，因此，本文对房地产业股票市场的运行进行监测预警，得到预警状态并提出对策建议。首先，本文系统综述了已有研究成果包括国内外预警理论、预警模型。对当前我国经济发展、房地产业股票市场和房地产市场的现实状况和危机传染机制进行了分析。基于预警理论研究和我国房地产股票市场所处大环境的现实考察，从宏观经济、房地产业股市、房地产市场三个方面选取11个预警指标构建了我国房地产业股票市场运行监测指标体系。其次，本文对预警指标体系进行因子分析，样本数据为2006年1月至2013年8月，综合评价近几年的风险状况，得到4个主因子得分和综合因子得分，以得分来确定预警阀值并将其转化为向量形式作为预警模型的控制输出。本文对原始变量建立BP神经网络模型，网络为外推4期的预警模型，将2006年1月至2012年4月的数据作为网络训练数据集、2012年5月至2013年4月的数据作为网络测试数据集、2013年5月至2013年8月的数据作为预测数据，网络学习效果较好，模型通过检验，预测了2013年9月至2013年12月的我国房地产业股市风险状况，并从监管方、上市公司以及投资者三个方面提出防范和化解风险的建议。最后，笔者对本文所做的工作进行了总结，并对我国房地产业股市预警方面的研究进行了未来的展望。
[Abstract]:Along with the economic growth, the scale of the stock market in our country is gradually growing, and the role played by the stock market is becoming more and more important. We should attach great importance to and support the development of the stock market. The operation of the stock market is unstable. The cycle is often repeated between high and low. In our country's stock market, the real estate industry has a large share of the stock market. The operation characteristics of the real estate stock market are highly correlated with the stock market. The operation of the real estate stock market reflects the operating characteristics of the whole stock market, and the small changes first appear in the real estate stock market. In this paper, the operation of the real estate stock market is monitored and forewarned, and some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. First of all, this paper systematically summarizes the existing research results, including the domestic and foreign early warning theory, early warning model. This paper analyzes the real situation and crisis contagion mechanism of real estate stock market and real estate market. Based on the research of early warning theory and the reality investigation of the real estate stock market in our country, from the macro economy, real estate stock market, the real estate stock market, In this paper, 11 early warning indexes are selected from three aspects of real estate market to construct the monitoring index system of real estate stock market in China. Secondly, this article carries on the factor analysis to the early warning index system, the sample data is from January 2006 to August 2013, synthetically evaluates the risk situation in recent years, obtains four main factor scores and the comprehensive factor score. In this paper, the BP neural network model is established for the original variables, and the network is extrapolated for 4 periods of early warning model, and the threshold value is determined by the score and transformed into vector form as the control output of the early warning model. Using the data from January 2006 to April 2012 as the web-based training data set, the data from May 2012 to April 2013 as the network test data set, and the data from May 2013 to August 2013 as the forecast data, the e-learning results are better, Through the test, the model predicts the real estate market risk from September 2013 to December 2013, and puts forward some suggestions on how to prevent and resolve the risk from three aspects: the supervisor, the listed company and the investor. Finally, the author summarizes the work done in this paper, and looks forward to the future research on stock market forewarning of real estate industry in China.
【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F832.51

【引证文献】