新三板企业价值评估方法研究

发布时间：2018-04-01 23:28

本文选题：企业价值评估　切入点：新三板　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：新三板市场交易日益火爆,针对新三板企业的估值方法目前以相对估值法为主,本文分析比较了以现金流量贴现法、相对估值法、经济增加值法、期权定价法为代表的传统估值模型在新三板市场的适用性,并结合相对估值法的优势,利用AHP层次分析和数学模型的理论基础,探究新的估值方法,以求为投资者在对新三板企业进行价值评估时提供参考。首先,本文介绍了企业价值评估的传统方法,并对新三板市场进行了特征分析。依据新三板市场企业高新技术产业集中度高,商业模式不稳定的特征,讨论现金流量贴现法、相对估值法、经济增加值法以及期权估值法在新三板市场的适用性,并由此得出以下结论:新三板市场的企业多是处于发展初期的企业,现金流不稳定,这导致自由现金流量贴现模型的应用受限;同样股利贴现模型及股权自由现金流量贴现模型对新三板企业价值评估的效果难以期许;相对估值模型因为标的企业的可比性较差,最不适用于新三板企业估值;期权估值模型实际操作复杂,实践效果差,只能作为对新三板企业价值评估的补充。基于以上分析,本文在相对估值法原理的基础上,提出在对新三板企业进行价值评估时,应该考虑多种评价因素。我们根据行业趋势(Industry),商业模式(Strategy),企业核心能力(Ability),流动性(Liquidity)四类主要因素,在AHP层次分析法理论基础上,对相应的指标进行量化,创立帆船(Sail)估值法,试图从价值层面衡量企业的实际价值数。具体流程分为设立评价指标,依据投资人意见对企业进行评估打分,依据分值的对比乘数,最终评估企业的市场价值。再次,本文选取了一家新三板企业,论述分为企业介绍、分析和新的估值方法的运用两个模块,进一步佐证新的估值方法应用的可能性。最后,文章总结了传统方法的约束性,和新模型方法的优势特点和应用意义。
[Abstract]:The new third board market is becoming more and more popular. According to the relative valuation method, this paper analyzes and compares the discounted cash flow method, the relative valuation method and the economic added value method.The applicability of the traditional valuation model represented by the option pricing method in the new third board market, and combining the advantages of the relative valuation method, using the theoretical basis of AHP hierarchy analysis and mathematical model, to explore the new valuation method.In order to provide a reference for investors in the value evaluation of the new three-board enterprises.Firstly, this paper introduces the traditional methods of enterprise value evaluation, and analyzes the characteristics of the new three-board market.According to the characteristics of high and new technology industry concentration and unstable business model, the paper discusses the applicability of discounted cash flow method, relative valuation method, economic added value method and option valuation method in the new third board market.The conclusions are as follows: most of the enterprises in the new market are in the initial stage of development, and the cash flow is unstable, which leads to the limitation of the application of the discounted free cash flow model;It is difficult to expect the effect of the discounted dividend model and the discounted cash flow model for the new three board companies, because the relative valuation model is not suitable for the valuation of the new three board companies because of the poor comparability of the underlying enterprises.Option valuation model can only be used as a supplement to the value evaluation of the new three-board enterprises because of its complex operation and poor practical effect.Based on the above analysis, based on the principle of relative valuation method, this paper puts forward that a variety of evaluation factors should be taken into account when evaluating the value of new three board enterprises.According to the four main factors of industry trend, business model, enterprise core competence and liquidity, we quantify the corresponding indicators on the basis of AHP Analytic hierarchy process theory, and establish the Sail-based valuation method.This paper tries to measure the actual value of the enterprise from the value level.The specific process is divided into the establishment of evaluation indicators, according to the opinions of investors to evaluate the enterprise score, according to the comparative multiplier of the score, the final evaluation of the market value of the enterprise.Thirdly, this paper selects a new three-board enterprise and discusses it into two modules: enterprise introduction, analysis and application of the new valuation method, which further proves the possibility of applying the new valuation method.Finally, the paper summarizes the constraint of the traditional method, and the advantages and characteristics of the new model method and its application significance.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51;F275

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